Grab, Sea lean on affordability, subscriptions to defend growth amid macroeconomic headwinds
Even as consumer spending comes under pressure, both companies have maintained their 2026 guidance
[SINGAPORE] Amid the ongoing Middle East conflict and broader macroeconomic uncertainty, consumer spending is coming under pressure with households turning cautious.
Yet, both Grab and Sea have maintained their 2026 guidance, saying that their focus on affordability and subscription programmes will prop up demand in the year ahead.
Grab has said that it is on track to deliver its 2026 revenue guidance of US$4.04 billion to US$4.1 billion, with adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) of US$700 million to US$720 million.
Sea, meanwhile, has said that it expects to grow e-commerce arm Shopee’s gross merchandise value (GMV) by around 25 per cent, while adjusted Ebitda should be at least in line with 2025 in absolute dollar terms.
“Discretionary spending is often one of those first things consumers pull back on when pump prices rise,” said Zavier Wong, market analyst at eToro.
Still, first-quarter metrics suggest that consumers are responding positively to lower-cost offerings and services on both platforms.
At Grab, higher fuel costs linked to the Middle East conflict have yet to dent demand, with offerings targeting the price-conscious seeing an uptick.
Group orders, where customers can make a food delivery order as a group to reduce costs, posted GMV growth of 74 per cent in Q1, Grab chief operating officer Alex Hungate said at an earnings call.
“In product innovations, we have really targeted affordability and reliability,” he said, referencing the “Group Rides” feature, where customers can book a ride with multiple stops, launched at Grab’s product showcase GrabX in April.
Grab Unlimited, a subscription programme, has also helped to support demand. Subscribers accounted for about a third of Grab’s deliveries GMV in Q1.
“All of these highly affordable products keep the demand strong even when consumers are stretched,” said Hungate.
Grab CEO Anthony Tan said that demand trends in April remained resilient despite the near-term macroeconomic uncertainties. He attributed this to Grab’s efforts to improve affordability, reliability and earning opportunities.
Weekly average transport volumes grew 32 per cent in April from a year earlier, though Grab did not disclose the base numbers.
“While we have seen some softness in our mobility business, particularly in the Philippines, we are also a net beneficiary in other markets, with our deliveries business hitting record numbers of daily transacting users in April,” said Tan.
Hungate said that there are multiple levers available for Grab to sustain the forecasts, even if pressures from fuel prices persist through the full year. These include ramping up monetisation from financial services and more emphasis on advertising.
Banking on price
At Sea, the focus on affordability has led it to grow its logistics service to optimise for speed and costs to grow Shopee.
The delivery cost per order for its logistics unit, SPX Express, has dropped for “faster services” in Q1 2026 from a year earlier, said Sea CEO Forrest Li at an earnings call.
In Indonesia, for example, order volumes for delivery services to be completed under two hours grew over 35 per cent in Q1, while the cost per order fell by about 20 per cent.
Sea said that the spike in fuel prices arising from the Middle East conflict has had an impact on costs, but the focus on being the cheapest platform to buy essentials can support demand.
Shopee has expanded partnerships with major convenience stores and pharmacy chains to extend its product assortment to broaden its fast moving consumer goods offerings.
Sea president Chris Feng said: “Our platform is also a more essential product platform rather than something that people buy a luxury product from.”
Shopee’s commissions rates have been raised, but Sea is reinvesting it back into its fulfilment networks and the subscription programme Shopee VIP. It is also keeping a close eye on commissions charged by its competitors, as price is still a key competitive advantage Shopee is looking to defend.
Members of Shopee VIP contributed some double-digit increases in spending, between 30 and 40 per cent in some markets. The members now contribute about 20 per cent of GMV across Asia.
The member count is also growing, with total subscribers in Asia crossing the 10 million mark in Q1, up more than 40 per cent from the previous quarter. Sea is seeking to build on this, having rolled Shopee VIP out in Brazil in April.
There are other avenues, such as Shopee’s content ecosystem, which include collaborations with YouTube and Meta.
Live streaming and short-form videos contributed about 25 per cent of physical goods orders in South-east Asia for Shopee in Q1, as orders grew more than 50 per cent.
For both Grab and Sea, the strategy of leaning into affordability and subscriptions appears to be paying off amid macroeconomic headwinds and fuel price volatility. Now, the bigger challenge for them will be to balance cost pressures while sustaining demand growth.
