Can the G20 survive Trump and deepening global fractures?

IN 1999, the US helped create the G20 in response to a succession of crises, including the 1998 Asian financial crash.

However, almost three decades later, the organisation is increasingly riven by geopolitical splits, with only fragile support from the Trump administration – intensifying the challenge of tackling the next international emergency.

While multilateralism is derided by many today, bodies such as the G20 have played key roles in helping defuse previous major upheavals, such as the 2007-2008 financial crisis. 

During the 2009 G20 summit, perhaps the most important ever, member states – led by then UK prime minister Gordon Brown – agreed on a coordinated US$1.1 trillion package to help stimulate demand and employment following the crisis.

That is a stark contrast to the present day, where US President Donald Trump rarely shows any interest in multilateralism and has quite often left key international summits early. 

In 2025, for example, the Trump administration boycotted the South African-hosted G20. This was largely over the widely discredited claim by Trump of “white genocide” – that the emerging market’s white minority population is being persecuted by the government.

The disdain of Trump towards Tshwane continues with the South African government not being invited to this year’s US-hosted events, and Poland given a seat at the table instead.

This diplomatic snub, despite South Africa continuing to be a full member of the G20, has led to objections from several member nations.

The US’ “new G20” agenda

In this context, it has long been expected that the US-hosted G20 this year would be unconventional. This includes the location of the Miami Leaders Summit. It will be held at the Trump National Doral golf club, which was purchased in 2012 by the Trump Organization.

Beyond accusations of presidential and commercial self-interest, concerns are growing over the US’ wider administration of this year’s G20.

Russia has aired its grievances in public, with Marat Berdyev, ambassador-at-large for G20 and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Affairs, asserting a major failure by the Trump team to fulfil its obligations as host state.

Berdyev’s gripes range from rejected visas and denied accreditations which, it is claimed, prevented Moscow from taking part fully in financial track meetings organised by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

This is one reason why the US-hosted G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting in April concluded without a joint statement or even the traditional media conference.

While it is perhaps not unexpected that Russia, a traditional US adversary, would criticise the Trump administration so openly, multiple allies are doing so off the record.

For instance, ahead of another G20 financial meeting that will be held in August, concerns have been raised about what US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called a “new G20” agenda.

This is centred on a slimmer range of topics than normal, and focused on issues that Trump regularly espouses, such as energy security, artificial intelligence and emerging technology, immigration, regulation and foreign investment.

Correspondingly, there is a US push to make fewer references to issues that the president finds less palatable, such as climate change and the energy transition. This is reportedly already influencing early drafts of December’s joint declaration.

This direction of travel should come as no huge surprise. During the G20 in 2025, Rubio declared on social media that South Africa is “using G20 to promote solidarity, equality and sustainability”. “In other words: DEI (diversity, equity and inclusion) and climate change”, and will not be attending the gathering because of that.

G20 divisions intensified by Trump

The Trump administration’s unusual style of diplomacy for the G20 is intensifying splits within the bloc that have already been growing since the pandemic and Ukraine war. 

In 2022, 2023 and 2024, G20 ministers regularly clashed diplomatically, with Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov walking out of some meetings. Moreover, the customary group photographs of the so-called “G20 family” have become rarer.

This is diminishing the effectiveness of the body as a global actor, which the world may come to rue in coming years.  

Amid this division and uncertainty, what is at stake is the very future of the G20 and wider multilateral forums, including the G7, which the US will host in 2027. Trump and fellow world leaders must double down on building multilateral relationships before the next global crisis strikes. 

As the pandemic and the 2007-2008 financial crashes showed, global cooperation and coordination are key ingredients in defusing, if not always solving outright, a widening array of global challenges that the world is increasingly facing.

The writer is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics