Japan is emerging as a regional security power broker

JAPAN’S 2026 Defense White Paper, released on Aug 4, argues that Japan must strengthen its “comprehensive national power” and collaborate more closely with like-minded partners in the face of a deteriorating security environment.

The paper is remarkable for linking Japan’s defence renaissance to economic revitalisation – Tokyo is clearly banking on the economic “ripple effects” of this investment, not least innovation in dual-use technologies.

Since her landslide victory in October 2025, Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has worked relentlessly to transform the nation’s military capabilities and diplomatic posture.

Zigzagging across the Indo-Pacific, Takaichi and Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi have sought to deepen partnerships with like-minded partners in the realms of defence and to strengthen economic cooperation.

For 2026, Takaichi’s Cabinet approved a record defence budget of more than nine trillion yen (US$56.5 billion). The defence ministry has earmarked nearly one trillion yen for stand-off strike capability alone, with additional resources being funnelled into developing unmanned systems and weapons with long-range strike capability.

Takaichi’s actions, particularly in the defensive realm, have not been without their critics. Japan’s economy and currency are being tested by rising budgets, while geopolitical rivals seek to stoke fears around Japan’s military renaissance.

Yet, these decisions are ultimately aimed at building the interoperability and security practices needed to protect the rules-based order, embodied in Tokyo’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) vision.

Pioneered by former prime minister Shinzo Abe, FOIP frames the region as deeply interconnected, governed by the rule of law, and conceived to preserve free trade and uphold freedom of navigation.

With continuing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and sharpening sovereignty disputes closer to home in the South China Sea, open sea lanes and free trade underpinned by a rules-based order are no longer guaranteed.

Bolstering the Indo-Pacific’s collective defence has therefore become a key focus for Japan. Takaichi has committed Tokyo to playing “a more proactive role than ever before” in upholding a rules-based regional order.

For Asean states and the Indo-Pacific region as a whole, this guarantee matters for more than ideological reasons. The region’s very prosperity has been built around this blueprint.

Japan has an export economy that belies its geographical size, ranking as the fourth-largest exporter in the world. Likewise, the wider region is an amalgamation of largely archipelagic, export-dependent states for whom free trade is not a policy preference but an economic precondition.

Securing sea lanes and free trade

Eight of the world’s top 20 exporters are in the Indo-Pacific region. Singapore’s own trade-to-gross domestic product ratio, for example, is 322 per cent.

Sea lanes must remain open for the Indo-Pacific to thrive. Achieving that will require like-minded states to band together militarily, build interoperability and deepen their hard defensive capabilities.

Japan has been doing exactly that – not only investing in its own capabilities, but assisting others to do the same.

In April 2026, Japan lifted its longstanding ban on exporting lethal equipment, paving the way for defence exports to 18 countries, Singapore among them.

This builds on Japan’s ongoing diplomatic efforts in South-east Asia. Moving beyond routine bilateral dialogues, Tokyo has been strengthening ties though the Official Security Assistance framework launched in 2022.

Under this framework, Japan has delivered coastal radar systems, patrol vessels and maritime surveillance equipment to the Philippines, and rescue boats to Malaysia.

These tangible asset transfers, paired with expanded joint maritime exercises and reciprocal logistics access, have bolstered Japan’s regional defence footprint.

Underpinned by Japan’s FOIP vision, this strategy complements regional frameworks such as the Asean Outlook on the Indo-Pacific, by fostering cooperation among diverse partners rather than imposing a strict model.

That Japan has kept open diplomatic channels with China demonstrates that FOIP is not about exclusion, but about preserving a system where the collective region can continue to prosper, free of coercion.

Far from a show of unilateral power, Japan’s growing defensive presence is the practical expression of a coalition working to protect a shared vision and safeguard shared trade routes.

While Japan’s re-emergence as a security partner in the Indo-Pacific may not be welcomed by its geopolitical antagonists, Tokyo’s multilateral approach to preserving the status quo is essential.

All regional actors have a responsibility not to heighten tensions. However, all also have the right to prepare themselves for self-defence and the protection of their partners.

Japan is exercising this right in pursuit of its longstanding objective: a free and open Indo-Pacific.

The writer, founder and chief analyst of consulting firm Indo-Pacific Solutions, is a professor of political science and international relations at the University of Southern California