Singapore’s next general election: What to expect

[SINGAPORE] The next general election (GE) in Singapore is Prime Minister Lawrence Wong’s first since taking the top role – and though it is due by November 2025, the timing remains unclear.

This will be PM Wong’s biggest test to date, and political observers think it could fall in either March to April, May to June, or September. They are more certain of the hot topics: cost of living, housing, immigration and geopolitics.

Of the 13 GEs since Singapore’s independence in 1965, three were in September and December each; two were in May; and one was in January, April, July, August and November each.

In November 2024, PM Wong said he had not decided when to hold the elections. As at Jan 2, the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee (EBRC) has yet to be formed.

After formation, the EBRC has generally taken two to seven months to release its reports, with Polling Day – at least for the last five GEs – happening half a month to four months afterwards.

Last year was a landmark one for elections globally, with more than 60 countries going to the polls. It was also a tough one for incumbents.

Singapore’s next GE will be the first in nearly 20 years without former prime minister Lee Hsien Loong at the helm. At the People’s Action Party (PAP) conference in November, PM Wong acknowledged a desire for more opposition voices, but how this will play out remains to be seen.

In the Republic’s last GE – in 2020 – the PAP maintained its parliamentary majority but its vote share declined to 61.2 per cent from 69.9 per cent in 2015. Meanwhile, the opposing Workers’ Party (WP) gained ground.

The world will be watching for the 2025 verdict, which could be viewed as a report card for the next generation of leaders.

Building on Budget

It is unlikely that a major event such as GE will be held before Budget 2025, says Dr Teo Kay Key, research fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies Social Lab, a social indicator research institute.

With the Budget statement on Feb 18 and associated debates ending in early March, GE could be as soon as late March.

The Budget speech is an opportunity for PM Wong to lay out the leadership’s plans, “and it will require political support – the government being re-elected – to carry out these plans”, says Dr Teo.

Independent political observer Dr Felix Tan also points out that any Budget “goodies” would still be fresh in voters’ minds.

Elvin Ong, assistant professor of political science at the National University of Singapore (NUS), expects the government to “seize the opportunity” to argue that the election is “an endorsement of the party’s, and the government’s, proposal for the next few years”.

An early GE would also avoid clashes with Singapore’s 60th National Day or diplomatic milestones with Thailand and China. Such commemorations will take time and may include visits, which could be “a drain on attention and resources”, says Prof Ong.

A little later

Schools are used as polling centres, and the suggested election windows overlap with the school holidays: Mar 15 to Mar 23; the month of June; and Sep 6 to Sep 14.

But there are arguments for waiting. A May or June election would allow Budget measures to take effect, and give the ruling PAP’s outreach efforts “some time to run”, says Chong Ja Ian, NUS associate professor of political science.

Dr Tan suggests that GE could be held close to Hari Raya Haji on Jun 7, during the school holidays but “before everybody leaves” for overseas trips. 

This would also be after the May Day Rally on May 1, he notes – another chance for PM Wong to make announcements and showcase achievements.

Similarly, a September GE would be just after National Day and the National Day Rally – giving PM Wong a longer runway and a chance to ride on “any upswing in popular support” from the celebrations, says Prof Chong.

Dr Teo is leaning towards late March to April or May, but says September or October is possible if the government wants more time to ensure that Forward Singapore (Forward SG) policies “have fully hit the ground running”.

Dr Tan sees a September election as “pushing it very close” to the deadline, but notes that PM Wong may want to take time to ensure he has the right people in place.

Bread and butter

Full-year core inflation is anticipated to come in between 2.5 and 3 per cent in 2024, down from 4.2 per cent in 2023. This is expected to ease further in 2025, to between 1.5 and 2.5 per cent.

But even as inflation cools, political observers expect the cost of living to remain a hot topic.

Voters may not track macroeconomic indicators, but will notice increases in daily costs, says Dr Tan. “Then Singaporeans will ask the next question: Is the Singapore government doing something to help?”

Says Dr Teo: “People have been feeling the crunch more, especially with the GST (goods and services tax) increases.”

The GST rate was raised twice over the last two years, by one percentage point each time in January 2023 and 2024, to 9 per cent currently.

Though the hikes were gradual and cushioned with vouchers, “it is hard to avoid the immediate visual and psychological impact when people go to shops and see the price increases”, adds Dr Teo.

Prof Ong says that most voters make their choices based primarily on whether they feel their lives have improved in terms of economic outcomes.

Other practical concerns are housing and jobs.

Housing was widely discussed after the Covid-led supply crunch, says Dr Teo. While the government has addressed concerns of supply, affordability and singles’ eligibility, she believes housing remains a hot-button issue.

“This is one issue where we will not be able to see immediate easing of the situation even if the ministry in charge is already on it. Houses take time to build, after all.”

As at end-November 2024, there were 100 Build-To-Order flat projects in progress, the government said, adding that this would increase to about 150 concurrent projects by 2025.

Opposition parties may focus on immigration, says Prof Ong.

At its campaign launch last May, the Singapore Democratic Party (SDP) said it plans to focus on issues such as immigration and foreign workers in the next GE.

Immigration can be tied to “many different things which the SDP thinks is important”, such as cost of living, competition for jobs and housing, says Prof Ong.

Immigration also seems like a focus for the Progress Singapore Party (PSP), given the questions it has raised in Parliament, he adds.

In many of last year’s electoral races, migration was a major issue. Notably, US president-elect Donald Trump made tackling illegal immigration a pillar of his campaign, promising mass deportations and stricter border rules. This was as some Americans were frustrated over what they saw as an invasion of foreigners, competing with locals for opportunities and resources.

Singapore’s opposition parties raise these issues in the belief that they are weaknesses of the PAP government and reflect real-world problems, Prof Ong says.

“So I think it’s important that the government has a convincing narrative, to push back against these particular views and policies from these opposition parties.”

There have already been signs of a pushback, he adds, noting the government’s argument that its policies balance foreign manpower needs with providing opportunities for local workers. 

The WP’s campaigns tend to be broader and well-balanced, adds Prof Ong, citing topics such as minimum wage, cultural issues and class sizes. 

Forward Singapore

The PAP’s campaign, meanwhile, may ride on Forward SG to showcase its vision for Singapore’s future and how the party is “planning to work for Singaporeans”, says Dr Teo.

Launched by PM Wong in 2022, the nationwide engagement gathered views from Singaporeans to create a road map for the nation’s development and update its social compact –  a collective understanding of citizens’ roles and responsibilities towards each other, and their shared values and aspirations.

The engagement culminated in a report published at the end of 2023 highlighting key policy shifts. Forward SG’s agenda encompasses many concerns such as support for families, ageing in place, and alternate pathways to success.

Opposition parties may criticise these initiatives and make their own proposals in areas such as healthcare, parenthood and widening definitions of success, Dr Teo adds.

Here, too, immigration could be raised, says Prof Ong. Forward SG emphasises multiple pathways to success, but this means addressing the wage gap – and immigration is an obstacle to raising salaries for lower-wage workers.

Dr Tan expects PM Wong to see Forward SG through, as it was the platform he rode on as he came into the top position.

But the political analyst is unsure whether it will resonate with voters or if Singaporeans will remember the underlying messages. “It’s this huge, broad, general, idealistic kind of discussion.”

Beyond the basics

While domestic issues tend to dominate elections, geopolitics may also feature considering global tensions, say pundits.

Any economic upheaval or regional instability stemming from tensions between global superpowers could be one important development to follow, Prof Chong says.

Dr Teo says voters will be watching how the government ensures stability despite geopolitical tensions, as unrest elsewhere may affect Singapore’s economy and jobs.

Dr Tan adds that businesses here – and Singaporean businesses in China – in particular will be watching the effects on the Singapore-China relationship.

Beyond the economic fallout of tensions, Singaporeans may have ideological concerns. Educated and affluent Singaporeans who are financially “comfortable” may be able to turn their attention to “bigger issues”, Dr Tan says.

The younger generation, specifically, may be more attentive to how political parties respond to crises such as Israel’s war in Gaza, he says.

Some voters may expect parties to take a stand, notes Prof Ong, citing a petition for Singapore to expedite its recognition of the State of Palestine.

Still, voters tend to gravitate towards the PAP in times of uncertainty, because of its track record of weathering global changes, says Dr Tan.

And while opposition parties previously spotlighted political rights, this has been gradually de-emphasised, notes Prof Ong.

This might be because they think the PAP has struck a generally accepted balance – such as repealing Section 377A of the Penal Code – “so there’s no point harping on about this”.

Opposition parties might also feel that messages about freedom of speech or marginalised groups are “not winning them any more votes”.

Bad reputation?

Both the ruling and opposition parties suffered blows last year with the high-profile trials of and WP chief Pritam Singh. But political observers are mixed on these events’ potential election impacts.

Prof Chong does not believe either trial will be a major issue, “unless the political parties decide to make it a campaign focus”. 

“If so, that would be a very narrow issue to devote time and energy to when the issues at stake should be substantive policy ones,” he adds.

Says Prof Ong: “For the hardcore supporters on both sides of the political spectrum, these trials will not mean much.”

As for most moderate voters, the trials may seem “a little bit of a distraction” from key economic issues, he adds.

Dr Tan sees Iswaran’s case as “rather anti-climactic”, but Singh’s as potentially a larger problem.

The trial is ongoing, so there has been no conclusion or closure. The PAP will have to shrug off accusations of a “witch hunt”, but more important is how the WP handles it.

“Big players within the party” – Leon Perera and Nicole Seah – have left earlier, and the Aljunied team has been “dragged through the mud” due to their entanglement with former member of parliament (MP) Raeesah Khan’s lie in Parliament, says Dr Tan. 

“And so there might be some doubts about these MPs,” he adds, though he hopes that Singaporeans will think about issues broadly.

He also notes that the WP chief’s trial has involved political figures that Singaporeans view as “impactful, significant” players – Singh himself, MPs Faisal Manap and Sylvia Lim, and former party leader Low Thia Khiang.

He asks: “Who are the better players... that are going to rise to the fore?”

Bringing in new candidates will be an important task for all the political parties. At the PAP’s conference, PM Wong called team renewal “absolutely the most important, the most crucial, the most urgent thing” he has to do.

The PSP, meanwhile, has gained prominence but is reliant on key figures, says Dr Tan. These are non-constituency MPs Leong Mun Wai – known for asking “tough questions” – and Hazel Poa, as well as chairman Tan Cheng Bock.

“So unfortunately, if they were to enter into any race, it might be a bit more challenging for them,” says Dr Tan. The PSP must attract more star members or create a bigger presence.

“Otherwise, PSP will always be the Tan Cheng Bock party, or the Leong Mun Wai party.”

As industry watchers continue to read the tea leaves, what is certain is that the next GE will be one to watch as it paves the path for PM Wong’s new era of leadership.

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