Vietnam’s four pillars and revolving-door posts

THERE’S a new white-knuckle politics playing out in Vietnam. It is visible in zero tolerance for leaders who may be involved in any sort of controversy or fall short on the performance scale.

On the surface, the four pillars of governance – the president, prime minister, general secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam and chairman of the national assembly – are cohesive. Yet recent events belie that belief.

The party’s prosecution of hundreds of officials since 2022, for alleged wrongdoing, suggests that the cement binding the four pillars – that is, party officials – is weakening.

The four pillars are certainly not equal. The Communist Party’s general secretary is the most powerful of the four positions, though the president also holds significant authority. The prime minister exercises administrative control, and the chairman of the national assembly has authority over the legislators.

Earlier cohesion

When Ho Chi Minh was party chairman from 1945 to 1969, nobody in Vietnam spoke of pillars. There was just one pillar. As the supreme leader, and surrounded by a halo of popular support, he was assisted by general secretary Le Duan; diplomat Le Duc Tho; prime minister Pham Van Dong; and military leader Vo Nguyen Giap.

It was a unique political formation because there was no rivalry among them. They were cohesive in the larger cause of liberating South Vietnam from American imperialist control.

After Ho Chi Minh’s death in September 1969, the Communist Party of Vietnam left his post as chairman vacant to honour his memory, with Le Duan succeeding him but taking the post of general secretary. All subsequent party chiefs have held the post of general secretary.

Over time, the model of four pillars came into existence as a system of collective leadership. The general secretary and the president take care of diplomacy and national defence. Legislative authority vests in the chairman of the national assembly. The prime minister is responsible for economic development and social stability.

It has been suggested that current Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh is being severely tested by slowing economic growth, with a recent Bloomberg report opining that further falls in growth may be “career damaging” and “weaken his authority”.

Consider his starting position. Chinh was elected prime minister for the 2021-2026 term on Jul 26, 2021. He was endorsed by all 479 deputies of the National Assembly present, or 95.99 per cent of all lawmakers. It was a resounding mandate from his peers, and a vote of confidence by any yardstick.

It may seem odd that Chinh, aged 65, should find his performance being closely watched by the party. Chinh is himself powerful, as a member of the party’s Central Committee and its Politburo.

At the time of his election in 2021, it was thought that Chinh would ensure that the position of prime minister remained a strong pillar in Vietnamese politics.

Yet that pillar is only as strong as the person who helms it. Vietnam’s economic slump may result in it falling short of its 6.5 per cent full-year growth target and thus damage Chinh’s authority in the short-term.

This is unlikely to cause pressure on him to quit, which would be too extreme a move. But if growth were to slow for a few years, the party might well seek to replace him.

Avoid over-reading

Ultimately, it is easy to read too much into Vietnamese politics. The removal of a top official, or a sudden resignation, is enough to make observers write dire reports of instability.

But Vietnam is not ruled by a single paramount leader. The country has a collective form of leadership.

Take the resignation of president Nguyen Xuan Phuc this January, after the Communist Party alleged that officials under his control had committed “violations and wrongdoing”.

This marked an escalation of the country’s anti-corruption campaign. In his earlier term as prime minister, Phuc had won plaudits for accelerating pro-business reforms. His resignation was significant as he became the highest-ranking official targeted by an anti-corruption drive.

In 2022, as many as 539 party members were prosecuted for corruption and “deliberate wrongdoing”, including ministers, senior officials and diplomats. The police also investigated 453 corruption cases, up 50 per cent from 2021.

Personnel changes signal that there may be a better man or woman waiting in the wings. The ruling party has been successful in filling the hundreds of positions left vacant by the allegedly corrupt officials.

In the end, the four pillars of governance seem to remain robust. From time to time, one or the other may be shaken by a weak or aberrant leader who may be replaced. The system of collective leadership, however, remains strong – even if there may be a need for Vietnam to rediscover or reinvent the old Ho Chi Minh spirit of camaraderie.

The writer is editor-in-chief of Rising Asia Journal