Geopolitical shocks: What moves first and why it matters

GEOPOLITICAL shocks are often treated as unpredictable events that markets simply react to. In practice, their impact tends to follow a recognisable pattern, particularly when energy supply is involved.

The Middle East conflict offers a useful case study in how these shocks move through markets and what investors need to watch in real time.

This analysis covers the most intense phase of the conflict, from Feb 27 to Mar 20. Within days of the Feb 28 airstrikes on Iran, oil prices surged, equity markets turned volatile and risk was quickly reassessed.