Oil has now fallen for four consecutive sessions, reaching its lowest level since early March. Brent crude, the global benchmark, dropped below $80 a barrel\u00a0today\u00a0\u2014\u00a0a far cry from\u00a0the highs above $120 it hit when the conflict was at its worst. Prices are heading toward their longest losing streak of the year, as the expected US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz raised expectations of recovering supply flows.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n For anyone who has been following the headlines, that drop makes intuitive sense. Peace deal signed, oil flows again, prices fall. But the full picture is\u00a0considerably more\u00a0complicated \u2014 and understanding it matters if you want to make sense of where energy markets go from here.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n How We Got Here:\u00a0<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n The conflict began in February 2026 when US and Israeli military operations against Iran triggered the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz \u2014 the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which\u00a0roughly one-fifth\u00a0of the world’s oil supply passes daily.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n Prior to the 2026 conflict, approximately 20 million barrels per day transited the Strait of Hormuz,\u00a0representing\u00a0roughly 20%\u00a0of total global oil supply flows and an even higher share of globally traded LNG. When that flow stopped, the effect was immediate and severe. At approximately 10 to 11 million barrels per day removed from accessible supply, the 2026 Hormuz closure exceeds the supply disruption scale of both the 1973 OPEC embargo and the 1979 Iranian Revolution, making it the largest single-event supply shock in modern oil market history by volume removed.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n Brent crude surged past $120 a barrel. Gasoline futures spiked more than 10% in a single session. Shipping insurance premiums surged. And inflation expectations, which had been cooling in early 2026, ratcheted sharply higher.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n The months that followed were marked by a series of false starts. A two-week ceasefire agreed in April sent oil plunging 15% in a day \u2014 then collapsed within 48 hours when IRGC gunboats attacked a merchant vessel\u00a0attempting\u00a0transit. Oil markets have been conditioned by\u00a0a number of\u00a0false starts. Each headline of progress was followed by renewed uncertainty, keeping prices elevated and volatile.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n What Changed on 14 June<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n Since the peace deal announcement on 14 June, WTI crude oil and Brent crude both fell over 5% to around $80 and $83 per barrel respectively \u2014 their lowest levels since 10 March.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n The deal, expected to be formally signed in Switzerland this Friday, is structurally different from the earlier ceasefire attempts. The US and Iran are set to sign a memorandum of understanding, with both countries allowing tankers to cross the Strait of Hormuz upon agreement, and the US unopposed to Tehran deploying tankers\u00a0immediately.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n Crucially, this agreement also carries broader supply implications. Fresh supply from the region is due to replenish refineries across the globe, with higher export quotas from OPEC+ and higher output from the UAE, which left the cartel during the conflict.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n A Roadmap for What Comes Next<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n Even with a signed deal on Friday, the physical recovery of oil supply will be gradual.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n Here\u00a0is\u00a0the timeline energy analysts are working with:<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n 19 June 2026<\/span><\/b>\u00a0\u2014 Peace Accord Signing: The US and Iran are scheduled to formally sign the memorandum of understanding in Switzerland, officially opening transit lanes.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n Mid-July 2026<\/span><\/b>\u00a0\u2014 Phased Infrastructure Restart: Rystad Energy’s base case assumes initial commercial tanker flows begin navigating shipping security clearances, with partial volumes moving through Hormuz.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n October 2026<\/span><\/b>\u00a0\u2014 85% Volume Restoration: Expected physical return of major regional volumes, excluding heavily delayed complex fields.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n January 2027<\/span><\/b>\u00a0\u2014 Full Field Normalisation:\u00a0Anticipated\u00a0timeline for mature fields in Iraq and Kuwait to achieve complete pre-conflict output capacities.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n Who Moves When Oil Falls: The\u00a0Gainers<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n The most immediate beneficiaries of falling oil prices are the industries that run on fuel.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n Airlines sit at the top of that list. Jet fuel is typically an airline’s second-largest operating cost after labour \u2014 so when oil drops sharply, the margin relief is direct and significant. On Monday 15 June, United Airlines (NASDAQ: UAL)\u00a0closed up\u00a03.85% to $119.97, hitting\u00a0an all-time record\u00a0high as investors priced in lower fuel costs for the summer travel season. Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) also gained 1.22% on the same day.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n Closer to home, Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L) is equally exposed to this dynamic. SIA closed at S$7.17 on 16 June, up 2.43% on the day. Analysts have noted that softer oil prices will help mitigate rises in other operating costs for SIA, which has been navigating a more challenging earnings environment following its Air India investment. The stock carries a forward dividend yield above 6%, with the next dividend carrying an ex-date of 11 August 2026 and a payment date of 28 August 2026.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n Cruise lines are\u00a0arguably even more\u00a0sensitive to fuel prices than airlines, given the sheer volume consumed running large vessels continuously. Carnival Corp (NYSE: CCL)\u00a0closed up\u00a03.22% to $30.12 on 16 June, while Norwegian Cruise Line (NASDAQ: NCLH) closed at $20.14. Royal Caribbean (NYSE: RCL) also gained ground. These companies had been navigating compressed margins throughout the conflict \u2014 the combination of falling fuel costs and reopening Middle East travel routes provides a meaningful tailwind heading into peak summer season.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n The Other Side: Energy Stocks Feel the Pressure<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n The\u00a0flip side\u00a0of falling oil is straightforward. Companies whose revenue is directly tied to the price of a barrel face\u00a0headwinds.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) closed at $140.92 on 16 June, down approximately 4.1% on the day and about 11% over the past month. Chevron (NYSE: CVX) fared similarly, closing at $180.40, a decline of 3.64% on the day. Bank of America recently upgraded ExxonMobil to Buy on the back of its pullback, reflecting that both\u00a0remain\u00a0strong long-term businesses \u2014 but in a falling oil price environment, near-term revenue per barrel headwinds\u00a0are\u00a0difficult to argue against.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n On the SGX, Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96) presents a more nuanced picture. Unlike a pure-play oil producer, Sembcorp’s energy business is heavily tied to the Singapore Spark Spread \u2014 the margin between local electricity prices and the cost of imported LNG. When the Strait of Hormuz was closed, global LNG prices spiked sharply, squeezing power generation margins and raising input costs for Singaporean energy providers. The reopening of Hormuz relieves those LNG import cost pressures directly, which is broadly positive for Sembcorp’s power generation business rather than a headwind. The company is also actively transitioning toward renewables and clean infrastructure, further insulating it from conventional oil price dynamics over the medium term.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n Why Oil Is Still Above Pre-War Levels \u2014 And\u00a0Could\u00a0Stay There for a While<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n Here is the part that gets lost in the headlines: prices nonetheless\u00a0remain\u00a0more than 20% above pre-war levels. Unlike a fear-driven risk premium that unwinds with the headline, this elevated base reflects real and lasting structural damage to supply that positive developments alone cannot repair.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n The physical infrastructure along the Gulf is damaged. Refineries, pipelines, and terminals were struck during the conflict, and restarting them takes time. Recovery timelines vary significantly by country and shut-in conditions. Producers that executed orderly shutdowns may resume within days to weeks. Iraq, however, faces a recovery window of up to nine months, according to Wood Mackenzie analysis.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n Under Rystad Energy’s base case scenario, a phased reopening from mid-July 2026 would restore approximately 85% of lost volumes by October 2026, with full recovery of Iraq and Kuwait’s mature fields extending into January 2027.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n There is also the question of tanker availability and shipping insurance \u2014 all of which normalise slowly. Tanker day rates typically increase 300\u2013400% whilst insurance premiums surge 500\u2013800% during recovery phases. These economic factors can delay recovery even when production capacity becomes available.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n And then there is the strategic reserve question. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserves had fallen to a 43-year low during the conflict. Rebuilding those reserves will itself require sustained buying, providing a floor under demand.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n The Bottom Line<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n The peace deal is genuine progress, and oil’s four-day slide reflects that. But the market is not simply unwinding a fear premium \u2014 it is repricing around a supply recovery that will take months, not days, to materialise fully. Prices\u00a0remain\u00a0more than 20% above pre-war levels, and the structural damage to Gulf energy infrastructure means the road back to pre-conflict supply levels is measured in quarters, not weeks.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n For the stocks caught in the middle \u2014 airlines, cruise lines, and energy names on both sides of the SGX and US markets \u2014 the direction of oil from here is the single most important variable to watch.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n As volatility continues to shape the energy landscape, traders may find opportunities on both sides of the market. Whether you’re looking to gain exposure to global oil majors such as ExxonMobil and Chevron, energy transition players like Sembcorp Industries, or broader oil price movements through energy-related products, staying positioned for the next phase of the oil story could be key. With the recovery of global supply expected to unfold over several quarters, energy markets are likely to remain active well into 2027.<\/p>\r\n Trade SGX and US-listed energy stocks on NOVA and stay connected to the opportunities emerging from one of the market’s most closely watched sectors. Trade from as low as US$1 fractionally<\/em>*.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n <\/p>\r\n <\/p>\r\nTrading the Next Chapter of the Oil Story<\/h3>\r\n
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