{"id":2693,"date":"2026-03-27T06:37:30","date_gmt":"2026-03-27T06:37:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/glutenfreepleasure.com\/__proxy_domain\/www.shkoh.com.sg\/?p=2693"},"modified":"2026-03-27T06:37:31","modified_gmt":"2026-03-27T06:37:31","slug":"why-recession-risk-increases-with-rising-oil-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/glutenfreepleasure.com\/__proxy_domain\/www.shkoh.com.sg\/post\/why-recession-risk-increases-with-rising-oil-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Recession Risk Increases with Rising Oil Prices"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Introduction<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oil remains one of the most critical commodities in the global economy. Despite advancements in renewable energy, modern economies still rely heavily on oil for transportation, manufacturing, logistics, and energy production. As a result, fluctuations in oil prices have far-reaching consequences that ripple across industries, countries, and financial systems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When oil prices rise sharply, concerns about economic slowdown\u2014and even recession\u2014begin to surface. Historically, many recessions have been preceded or accompanied by spikes in oil prices. This is not a coincidence. Rising oil prices create cost pressures, reduce consumer spending power, disrupt supply chains, and tighten financial conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In this article, we will explore in depth why rising oil prices increase recession risk, the mechanisms through which this happens, and how it affects economies globally and in Singapore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. Oil as a Core Input in the Global Economy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oil is not just another commodity\u2014it is a foundational input for nearly every sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key areas where oil plays a critical role:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Transportation (cars, trucks, ships, airplanes)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Manufacturing (plastics, chemicals, machinery)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Energy generation (especially in developing economies)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Agriculture (fertilizers, machinery, logistics)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Because oil is embedded in so many parts of the economy, any increase in its price acts like a universal cost increase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When oil prices rise:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Businesses face higher operating costs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Governments may face higher subsidy burdens<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Consumers face higher fuel and utility bills<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This widespread impact is what makes oil price increases particularly dangerous for economic stability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. Cost-Push Inflation: The First Shock<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One of the most immediate effects of rising oil prices is <strong>cost-push inflation<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How it works:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Oil prices increase \u2192 transportation costs rise<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Transportation costs rise \u2192 goods become more expensive<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Businesses pass costs to consumers \u2192 inflation increases<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This type of inflation is especially harmful because it is not driven by strong demand but by rising costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key consequences:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Prices of everyday goods increase<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Food becomes more expensive due to higher logistics costs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Utility bills rise<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This leads to a general increase in the cost of living.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. Reduced Consumer Spending Power<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As oil prices rise, households begin to feel the squeeze.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Example:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If petrol prices increase significantly:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Families spend more on fuel<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Electricity and transport costs rise<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Less disposable income remains<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This leads to:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Reduced spending on non-essential goods<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Lower retail and service sector revenues<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Slower economic activity<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Consumer spending is a major driver of GDP in most economies. When spending declines, economic growth slows, increasing recession risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4. Impact on Business Profit Margins<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Businesses are directly affected by rising oil prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key challenges for businesses:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Increased logistics and transportation costs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Higher raw material costs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Rising energy bills<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Companies then face a difficult choice:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Absorb the costs \u2192 lower profit margins<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Pass costs to consumers \u2192 risk losing demand<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Either way, business performance suffers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Consequences:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Reduced hiring or layoffs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Delayed investments and expansion<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Lower corporate earnings<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When many businesses experience these pressures simultaneously, it can trigger a broader economic slowdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">5. Central Bank Response: Interest Rate Hikes<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rising oil prices often lead to higher inflation. In response, central banks may raise interest rates to control inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How this contributes to recession risk:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Consumers reduce spending on big-ticket items (homes, cars)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Businesses delay investments<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This creates a tightening cycle:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Inflation rises \u2192 rates increase \u2192 spending slows<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While necessary to control inflation, higher interest rates can significantly dampen economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">6. Supply Chain Disruptions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oil is essential for global trade and logistics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When oil prices rise:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Shipping costs increase<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Air freight becomes more expensive<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Supply chains become less efficient<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Impact:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Delays in goods delivery<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Increased costs for imported goods<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inventory shortages<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This disrupts production cycles and reduces economic efficiency, contributing to slower growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">7. Sector-Specific Impacts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Some industries are more vulnerable than others.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Highly affected sectors:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Airlines<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Logistics and shipping<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Manufacturing<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Agriculture<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For example:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Airlines face higher fuel costs, reducing profitability<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Logistics companies increase delivery fees<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Farmers face higher fuel and fertilizer costs<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When multiple sectors are affected simultaneously, the overall economy weakens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">8. Wealth Transfer from Importers to Exporters<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rising oil prices shift wealth globally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Oil-importing countries:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Experience higher import bills<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>See trade deficits widen<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Face currency depreciation risks<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Oil-exporting countries:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Benefit from higher revenues<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Experience economic gains<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, since many major economies (like Japan, Europe, and Singapore) are oil importers, the overall global effect tends to be negative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">9. Financial Market Reactions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oil price spikes often trigger volatility in financial markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Effects include:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Stock market declines (especially in energy-sensitive sectors)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Increased uncertainty among investors<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Capital outflows from vulnerable economies<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Investor confidence is crucial for economic stability. When confidence drops, investment slows, further increasing recession risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">10. Historical Evidence: Oil Shocks and Recessions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">History shows a strong link between oil price spikes and recessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Notable examples:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>1970s oil crisis \u2192 global stagflation<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2008 oil price spike \u2192 preceded global financial crisis<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2022 energy crisis \u2192 contributed to global inflation surge<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While oil prices are not always the sole cause, they often act as a trigger or amplifier of economic downturns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">11. Impact on Emerging Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Emerging economies are particularly vulnerable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Reasons:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Higher dependence on imported oil<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Limited fiscal capacity to absorb shocks<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Weaker currencies<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rising oil prices can lead to:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Inflation spikes<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Currency depreciation<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Debt repayment challenges<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This increases the risk of economic instability and recession in these markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">12. The Singapore Context<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Singapore is highly exposed to oil price movements due to its open economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key factors:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Heavy reliance on imports for energy<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Strong dependence on global trade<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Major role as a logistics and shipping hub<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Impact of rising oil prices in Singapore:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Higher transport and logistics costs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Increased cost of living<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Pressure on businesses, especially SMEs<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, Singapore also benefits from:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Its role as a global oil trading hub<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Strong fiscal reserves<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Effective monetary policy by MAS<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite these strengths, prolonged high oil prices can still slow economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">13. Psychological and Sentiment Effects<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Economic outcomes are not just driven by numbers\u2014they are also influenced by perception.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When oil prices rise sharply:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Consumers become cautious<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Businesses delay expansion<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Investors adopt a risk-off approach<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This collective behavior can amplify economic slowdown, increasing recession risk even further.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">14. Stagflation Risk<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One of the most dangerous outcomes of rising oil prices is <strong>stagflation<\/strong>\u2014a combination of:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>High inflation<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Slow economic growth<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Rising unemployment<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Stagflation is particularly difficult to manage because:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Raising interest rates hurts growth<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Lowering rates worsens inflation<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This creates a policy dilemma for governments and central banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">15. Long-Term Structural Effects<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sustained high oil prices can lead to structural changes in the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Examples:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Shift toward renewable energy<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Increased investment in energy efficiency<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Changes in consumer behavior<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While these changes can be positive in the long run, the transition period can be economically disruptive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Conclusion<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rising oil prices are a powerful force that can significantly increase recession risk. Through multiple channels\u2014cost-push inflation, reduced consumer spending, business pressures, tighter monetary policy, and supply chain disruptions\u2014higher oil prices can slow economic activity and weaken growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For economies like Singapore, which are highly integrated into global trade and heavily dependent on energy imports, the impact can be particularly pronounced. While strong policy frameworks and economic resilience can mitigate some effects, prolonged periods of high oil prices remain a significant risk factor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ultimately, oil price shocks serve as a reminder of how interconnected the global economy is. A single commodity can influence inflation, employment, investment, and overall economic stability. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for businesses, policymakers, and individuals alike in navigating uncertain economic environments.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Introduction Oil remains one of the most critical commodities in the global economy. Despite advancements in renewable energy, modern economies still rely heavily on oil for transportation, manufacturing, logistics, and energy production. As a result, fluctuations in oil prices have far-reaching consequences that ripple across industries, countries, and financial systems. When oil prices rise sharply, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2693","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why Recession Risk Increases with Rising Oil Prices - KOH Management<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/glutenfreepleasure.com\/__proxy_domain\/www.shkoh.com.sg\/post\/why-recession-risk-increases-with-rising-oil-prices\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why Recession Risk Increases with Rising Oil Prices - KOH Management\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Introduction Oil remains one of the most critical commodities in the global economy. Despite advancements in renewable energy, modern economies still rely heavily on oil for transportation, manufacturing, logistics, and energy production. As a result, fluctuations in oil prices have far-reaching consequences that ripple across industries, countries, and financial systems. When oil prices rise sharply, [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/glutenfreepleasure.com\/__proxy_domain\/www.shkoh.com.sg\/post\/why-recession-risk-increases-with-rising-oil-prices\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"KOH Management\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-03-27T06:37:30+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-03-27T06:37:31+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.shkoh.com.sg\\\/post\\\/why-recession-risk-increases-with-rising-oil-prices\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.shkoh.com.sg\\\/post\\\/why-recession-risk-increases-with-rising-oil-prices\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.shkoh.com.sg\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/2df12de0cbf5ebc87ce3b3453f5ff891\"},\"headline\":\"Why Recession Risk Increases with Rising Oil Prices\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-03-27T06:37:30+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-03-27T06:37:31+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.shkoh.com.sg\\\/post\\\/why-recession-risk-increases-with-rising-oil-prices\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1230,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.shkoh.com.sg\\\/#organization\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.shkoh.com.sg\\\/post\\\/why-recession-risk-increases-with-rising-oil-prices\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.shkoh.com.sg\\\/post\\\/why-recession-risk-increases-with-rising-oil-prices\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.shkoh.com.sg\\\/post\\\/why-recession-risk-increases-with-rising-oil-prices\\\/\",\"name\":\"Why Recession Risk Increases with Rising Oil Prices - 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