Asean and global emerging markets step up at COP30

COP30 is just over halfway through its scheduled two weeks, but it is already clear that a dominant theme is the growing prominence of emerging markets, including in Asean, in the global climate debate. These nations are expected to provide the motor of global economic growth in coming decades.

This dynamic has kicked in not only because of the absence of key leaders from major emitting nations – notably US President Donald Trump, who also withdrew US officials – but also because many emerging markets perceive a significant scaling down of climate ambition by key industrialised powers.

The headlines of the first week at COP 30 have been captured by the dozens of Brazilian indigenous protesters who forced their way into the summit to demand climate action, including forest protection. However, seasoned diplomats have highlighted much the same point, albeit in a different way.

For instance, Brazilian diplomat Andre Correa do Lago, the COP30 president, said last week that “somehow the reduction in enthusiasm of the global North is showing that the global South is moving. It is not just this year, it has been moving for years, but it did not have the exposure that it has now”.

Some of the key Global South voices include the G77+China bloc of developing countries, Asean, the Africa Group, and Brazil, South Africa, India and China (composing the Basic group). Also prominent is the Alliance of Small Island States, which faces a growing threat from rising seas.

In the Asia-Pacific, Australia and Japan are two of the nations perceived as not stepping up. Last week, for instance, protests dubbed “Stop Japan’s Dirty Energy Plans” saw protesters in Pokemon costumes call on Tokyo to end its financing of fossil fuel projects across the Global South, including in Asean.

Hiroki Osada from the Friends of the Earth Japan NGO, asserted last week that “Japan is actually delaying the fossil fuel phase-out across Asia” despite its avowed credentials as a green leader in the region. He highlighted Tokyo’s support for funding fossil fuel-related projects in countries including Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines. For instance, the Philippines-based Centre for Energy, Ecology and Development claims that the Japan Bank for International Cooperation financed some US$6.4 billion in loans for coal projects there from 2016 to 2024.

At COP30, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is encouraging countries to agree on a road map to implement the “transition away from fossil fuels” agreed at COP28 in Dubai. He asserts that strengthening climate ambition is the only way to avoid “catastrophic” harm to the planet.

Small island states, in particular, are pushing for tougher 2035 targets, warning that current national pledges put the world on track for at least around 2.5 degrees Celsius of heating. This would be a warmer world well above the 1.5-deg-C-aligned agenda of the Paris climate deal.

Last week, United Nations Climate Change executive secretary Simon Stiell said world leaders face a crossroads between locking in what he depicted as the instability, including higher prices, of fossil fuels, and accelerating a pathway to cheaper clean energy. He asserted that “we can and must bring temperatures back down to 1.5 deg C after any temporary overshoot”, but only with rapid cuts this decade, including methane, and a decisive move away from fossil fuels.

Beyond criticising much of the industrialised North, developing countries in Africa, Asia and South America, are also increasingly leading the way in providing a legal framework for future climate security. A growing number are concluding that it is in their national interest to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by embracing low-carbon growth and development, and to prepare for the impact of climate change by advancing related laws and policies.

Malaysia, as 2025 chair of Asean, is for instance highlighting at COP30 the importance of regional cooperation through initiatives such as the Asean Power Grid. This facilitates cross-border renewable energy trade and supports the translation of regional ambitions into actionable plans.

Moreover, Indonesia has pledged at COP30 to support an ambitious new scheme championed by Lula to support endangered forests. The Tropical Forests Forever Facility has already drawn some US$5.5 billion in pledges and has a goal of ultimately leveraging investments of around US$125 billion.

Yet another indication of the growing influence of emerging markets in the climate debate is the priority issues discussed at COP30. This includes the ever-growing prominence of climate finance with its scale, scope, quality and accountability under intense discussion in Brazil.

At COP29 in Azerbaijan last year, industrialised nations pledged some US$300 billion per year within a decade to help the Global South. However, it is widely perceived that at least four times that amount is needed. Brazil is therefore proposing US$1.3 trillion, including through addressing debt and providing more grants and low-cost loans.

Emerging markets also want to address financial and action targets for climate adaptation, a topic of particular significance to Asean as one of the most vulnerable regions to climate risk. The latest UN Adaptation Gap report found that developing countries will require US$310 billion to US$365 billion in adaptation finance per year by 2035, many times greater than the US$26 billion available in 2023. A key hope here is that multilateral development banks can help ensure more money – including from the private sector – is channelled in this direction, as was agreed at COP26 in Glasgow.

As part of this dialogue, there is also debate about extending more country partnerships to support just transitions to low-emission, climate-resilient economies in the Global South. The first of these was agreed at COP26 when South Africa announced a partnership with the key Northern powers to raise some US$8.5 billion dollars. This Just Energy Transition Partnership model was subsequently extended to other nations, including around US$20 billion for Indonesia, and some US$15.8 billion for Vietnam.

Taken together, COP30 is therefore showcasing a crucial, but often under-appreciated, change in the centre of gravity of the climate debate toward the Global South. This mirrors a crossroads in international relations, with continuing economic uncertainty in the North being counterposed with an increasing shift of power to emerging economies, including Asean.

The writer is an associate at LSE Ideas at the London School of Economics