THINKING ALOUD
Markets are ignoring warning signs
Investors today are effectively pricing for a world in which wars, inflation and oil shocks remain manageable
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“THE trend is your friend – until the end when it bends” is a well-known market saying about the dangers of complacency and relying on momentum.
Interestingly, it actually fits current market conditions, since trading today is clearly driven by liquidity, momentum and policy optimism despite mounting geopolitical and inflation risks.
Wall Street, for instance, continues climbing to fresh highs despite the ongoing Iran conflict and the very real possibility that sustained high oil prices could reignite inflation.
