Oil fraud allegations cast shadow on Wilmar’s share price and earnings

Wilmar should enjoy further market share growth in the food products segment in 2025.

Wilmar International should enjoy an earnings improvement in 2025 on better refining margins but share price may be subdued amidst allegations of oil fraud in Indonesia, said UOB Kay Hian.

The Singapore agribusiness company logged stronger operating margins from its China operations and sugar milling division on the back of high sugar prices and white sugar premiums.

UOB Kay Hian estimates that Wilmar will earn around $1.58b in 2025 and $1.86b in 2026.

The company should enjoy further market share growth in the food products segment in 2025, thanks to its reputation as a “producer of quality and healthy food,” said UOBKH analysts Heidi Mo and Llelleythan Tan Yi Rong.

However, shorten term share price pressure is expected due to palm oil fraud allegations in Indonesia.

Wilmar and its five subsidiaries are reportedly under investigation on the back of claims of CPO price manipulation via the export system from 2021-2022.

Whilst no official charges have been filed as of 25 February 2025, the Indonesian Public Prosecutor has proposed a penalty of around $732m (IDR11.89t).

Wilmar International has denied direct involvement in the corruption. It said that no subsidiaries of the group have been found guilty, and that it will contest the charges.

Separately, Wilmar International expressed cautious optimism for its oilseeds division given the anticipated record soybean crop production in Brazil in 2025.

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