This chart proves Thailand's plummeting consumer confidence

GDP could be hit big-time, warns analyst.

According to DBS, at 76.6 in October, consumer confidence index is now at its lowest level since early 2012. Back then, the economy was still recovering from the 2011 floods. This is definitely disconcerting for the GDP growth outlook.

Here's more:

Further moderation in private consumption growth will add significant downside risks to our GDP growth projection. Contribution from private consumption growth to overall GDP growth has averaged 1.8 percentage points in 1H. That was more than the contribution from net exports and investment growth combined together.

Clearly, private consumption has been the key pillar of the economy. According to the Chamber of Commerce, the main reason that has affected confidence is the heightened political unrest recently.

BOT Governor Prasarn commented over the weekend that political protest is beginning to impact the economy.

If the recent protests were to persist for much longer, private consumption growth may falter even further. Our 4% 2013 GDP growth forecast will seem to be quite a stretch.

Interestingly, the BOT Governor also indicated that GDP growth in the 3-4% range is considered relatively high for 2013. This compares to the central bank’s current official estimate of 3.7%. Coming just before the 3Q GDP next week, this is not a good sign.

One would wonder if the BOT Governor is preparing the markets for the worst. If 3Q GDP were to come in below 3.5% YoY, a downward revision to our GDP growth estimates is imminent.

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