Check out Thailand's V-shaped recovery graph

Manufacturing growth is pegged to hit 7.3% in August.

According to DBS, the V-shaped recovery has already played out. Manufacturing indices and exports have rebounded as supply-side disruptions fade. It is demand that will continue to constrain manufacturing output in the coming months.

Here's more from DBS:

In seasonally-adjusted terms, manufacturing output has actually been falling since May. By segments, the production of hard disks has tapered out and appears to be trending lower. This could be a combination of weak global demand for electronics and lower prices.

Meanwhile, the production of motor vehicles remained relatively strong, pushing new highs through the months of May, June and July. Pent-up demand is one explanation for the sharp increase in motor vehicle production, but this phase is largely over.

In the short term, the government’s first car scheme (which provides tax rebates on vehicles) will be a key factor to drive demand.

However, even if domestic demand remains strong, external headwinds still loom and output is likely to remain constrained. In line with the weak export data released earlier this week, manufacturing growth is expected to reach 7.3% YoY in August.

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