India households peg inflation at 12.8%

This expectation remains in double digits for the eleventh consecutive quarter.

According to Nomura, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said households expect inflation to rise from 11.3% in Q2 2012 to 12% in three months and to 12.8% in a year, remaining in double digits for the eleventh consecutive quarter.

Here's more from Nomura:

The rise in expectations is mainly influenced by the persistently high price of food products. However, households expect price pressures to continue across the board with prices likely to rise for non-food products, household durables, housing and the cost of services.

Slow growth is not yet translating into lower inflation expectations as rising food prices continue to burden household budgets. Because of the upside risks to food price inflation due to adverse monsoons and high minimum support prices, inflation expectations will likely remain elevated in the coming quarters as well. As the RBI noted in its macroeconomic report today, “typically, episodes of high inflation have been marked by inflation persisting for 2-3 years and have required sustained efforts to lower inflation expectations and inflation.” Hence, we think the inflation battle is not over yet.

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