India's non-oil imports dip to worsen starting 3Q12

On the other hand, India's trade acounts will be greatly affected by oil price hike as roughly 69% of oil demand is met via imports.

According to RBS, India’s growth slowdown has become pronounced and comprehensive over the last few months, extending from exports to investment to consumption.

Here's more from RBS:

As we have discussed in previous reports, the investment pipeline is drying up rapidly owing to a host of factors, including the on-going policy paralysis on economic reforms. Prospects of a major improvement appear limited. Our proprietary leading indicator of growth continues to signal sub-par growth.

Against this backdrop, non-oil import growth is set for a correction. Non-oil imports declined for the first time in May and this trend is likely to accentuate in the coming months. Oil imports are still rising, which suggests to us that the decline in global prices has yet to feed through. Oil prices are an important influence for India’s trade accounts considering that roughly 69% of oil demand is met via imports. We estimate that a USD10/barrel decline in oil prices reduces the current account deficit by roughly 0.5% of GDP.

Further, though not related to the business cycle, we are encouraged by the decline in gold imports, a major source of stress for the trade accounts last year. According to estimates of the World Gold Council (WGC), volume gold imports were down 55% yoy in Q1 2012.

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