Philippines import growth predicted to dip 4.3%

Badly impacted by Typhoon Haiyan.

According to DBS, the concern for the economy is that domestic demand will plunge due to the typhoon, putting downside pressure on GDP growth into 2014.

The November data is likely to show, however, that demand has remained steady. Expect to see import growth staying in the negative, with DBS' forecast pencilling in -4.3% YoY in the month.

Here's more:

Pay close attention to the import data starting from November, just when the typhoon hit the country. High base effects played a role, however, as the nominal amount of imports is likely to remain very much close to USD 5bn in the month, just slightly below trend.

Some drag from the typhoon is visible in the consumption goods segment but for the most part, expect decent showing in both imports of capital and intermediate goods. If anything, expect imports of capital goods to accelerate in 1H 2014, as the reconstruction efforts kick off.

Total import growth is likely to accelerate to 7.1% YoY this year, up from a projected 3% in 2013.

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