Taiwan exports slip 11.6%

Falling demand from US, Europe and China dragged the country's July trade data.

According to DBS, Taiwan's July trade data support the view that growth remains weak in 3Q and the timing of a recovery will be delayed to 4Q. Exports contracted -11.6% YoY (-4.8% MoM sa), far worse than the consensus forecast of -7.7%.

Here's more from DBS:

The contraction was led by falling demand from the world's three major economies - US (-20% YoY), Europe (-14.4%) and China (including HK, -11.0%). These three markets account for 60-70% of Taiwan's total export demand.

Based on the sluggishness in key indicators for July including trade and PMI, we recently have cut the GDP growth estimate for 2012 to 1.3% from 2.0%. Meanwhile, considering the same weakness in Korea's July exports (-8.8% YoY), the trade data in other Asian countries to be released in the coming weeks would also be disappointing.

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