Is Taiwan tumbling to a technical recession?

November exports fell way short of the expected 8.6%, stoking fears of a consecutive contraction.

Disappointing 1.3% yoy growth in November exports point to negative growth in Q4 2011, says Royal Bank of Scotland in a market alert.

Taiwan's economy already shrunk in Q3, so another quarter of GDP shrinkage will signal a technical recession.

Here's more from RBSM:

Exports increased by 1.3% yoy in November, much lower than the 8.6% expected. They contracted 3% mom, sa. Imports contracted by 10.4% yoy, resulting in a bumper trade surplus of USD 3.2 billion.

In terms of export destinations, the weakness was observable across the board, but two regions stand out. Exports to Europe (which account for about 10% of the total) contracted by a whopping 22% yoy. Exports to Asia ex China and Hong Kong (which account for about 20% of total) were the only ones that expanded yoy—and by a healthy rate of 20%.

The weakness in imports is mainly due to capital goods and, hence, closely linked to the export weakness and gloomy growth prospects.

The trade numbers extend the pattern observed over past quarters, namely of weak export hitting investment and domestic demand. Average exports in October and November are now 2.7% below the average exports in Q3, compared to a contraction of 2.3% in Q3. Hence, there is an increased chance that we will see a second quarter of negative growth in Q4, marking a technical recession.

Reaching the people who run Asia's businesses is harder than it used to be.

Inboxes are crowded. Attention is short. The executives you most want to reach — the founders, CFOs, and operators who actually move budgets — are the hardest to find through the usual channels. If you're building a company, a category, or a reputation, you already know this.

We've spent twenty years building the room they read. Singapore Business Review is where senior decision makers in Singapore and across Southeast Asia come for business coverage they can't get elsewhere — in print, online, and in person at the summits and roundtables we host across seven markets.

If you have something these readers should know about — a point of view worth publishing, a product worth their attention, an event worth their time — we'd like to hear what you're trying to do.

Book a meeting

| Or download the media kit (PDF)

240,000 senior readers quarterly in print Top 1,700 Singapore companies reached

7 markets across Southeast Asia