Thailand's full-year growth forecast to miss BOT estimate

OCBC expects a decent 5.5% growth, or below the 6% estimate set by BOT Governor Prasarn.

OCBC Treasury Research noted:

BOT is widely expected to hold its benchmark rate unchanged during its rate decision later today and the central bank is also likely to continue suggesting that it would maintain rates steady until further cues in the market.

Note that our full-year forecast for Thai inflation currently stands at 3.0%, well within the comfortable levels set by the central bank.

Hence, we expect growth to be the key focus going forward, and while we expect full-year growth to miss the 6% estimate set by BOT Governor Prasarn, a decent 5.5% growth is still in the offing.

Trade data for the coming months will prove crucial on this front, and we would also look at the June exports data due today (OCBC forecast: 6.8% yoy).

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