For better or for worse? Economist unveil predictions for SG’s economy

They expect full-year inflation to come in between 3.5% and 5.9%.

Economists and analysts have slightly become more positive about Singapore’s economic performance for 2023, the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS) Survey of Professional Forecasters unveiled.

According to the survey, experts have adjusted their predictions for Singapore’s full-year gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 1.9% from the previous 1.8% forecast in December 2022.

Based on MAS’ mean probability distribution of 2023 GDP growth forecasts, Singapore’s economy will likely grow by 2.0% to 2.9% in 2023.

In the previous survey, respondents assigned the highest probability of growth outturns between 1.0 to 1.9%.

By 2024, experts predict GDP to expand by 2.5%.

“Their forecasts of the most probable outcome for growth fall between 2.0 and 2.9%, with an average probability of 33.2% assigned to this range,” MAS said.

Economists and analysts have lowered its expected CPI-All Items (headline) inflation growth for 2023 at 5.0%. In December 2022, they predicted a 5.2% headline inflation for 2023.

Their forecast from MAS Core Inflation, on the other hand, slightly increased to 4.1% from 4.0% in December 2022.

As for the labour market, the respondents expect the unemployment rate to be 2.2% at year-end.

In 2024, however, experts predict that both headline and MAS core inflation will ease.

“CPI-All Items inflation is forecast at 3.1% in 2024, while MAS Core Inflation is expected to come in at 2.9%,” the survey stated.

“Respondents assigned the highest probability to the 3.0 to 3.4% range for both CPI-All Items inflation and MAS Core Inflation,” the survey added.

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