Labour market to stay resilient into H1 2025 despite trade slowdown: report

Wholesale trade, transportation, storage, and manufacturing sectors could face hiring challenges due to these uncertainties.

Labour market resilience is expected to continue into the first half of 2025, but hiring in trade-related sectors may slow due to uncertainties around US tariff policies, UOB said.

In a commentary note, the bank highlighted that sectors such as wholesale trade, transportation, storage, and manufacturing could face hiring challenges due to these uncertainties.

However, UOB noted that declining global policy rates might offset these pressures by supporting investment and consumption and positively impacting Singapore's labour market.

On the other hand, the Q3 2024 Labour Market Pressure Index (LMPI) reflects a significant easing in labour market tightness since Q2 2022, with conditions stabilizing in Q3 2024.

The job vacancies-to-unemployed ratio declined to 1.39 in Q3 2024 from a peak of 2.54 in Q2 2022 but remains above 1.0, indicating that job opportunities still exceed the number of job seekers.

UOB said the LMPI shows a positive correlation with the Monetary Authority of Singapore's core and services CPI, which suggests a tighter labour market contributes to upward pressure on consumer prices.

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