September surge masks looming export slowdown to 6% in 2027

Maybank raised its 2026 forecast to 27% from 18% in the same report.

Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) growth could slow to 6% in 2027 as supply chain pressures and higher financing costs weigh on shipment momentum, Maybank Research Pte Ltd said.

NODX jumped 68.4% year-on-year in September, extending August's 46.1% growth, according to Enterprise Singapore.

Maybank Research said the jump in ship exports, which was one of the drivers of the September data, is likely a blip caused by uneven delivery schedules.

Supply chain pressures could eventually weigh on shipment momentum, whilst higher financing costs could slow hyperscalers’ capital expenditure over the next year, the company said.

Electronics export growth is also unlikely to keep accelerating indefinitely, even as AI-related external demand bolsters activity in electronics, precision engineering, and wholesale trade.

Meanwhile, Maybank raised the 2026 NODX growth forecast to 27% from 18%, assuming an average growth of 25% in the fourth quarter, whilst it maintained the full-year GDP growth forecast at 5.6% and 3.3% in 2027.

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