Singapore GDP seen growing 3.4% in Q1: Nomura

Weak global growth poses downside risk.

Singapore’s economy is expected to grow faster by 3.4% year-on-year in the first quarter with the manufacturing rebound and strong tourism arrivals supporting full-year growth for 2024, according to Nomura.

Based on its latest Nomura Coincident Monthly Activity Indicator, its estimated GDP growth for the first quarter will outpace the actual 2.2% yearly increase in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Nomura maintained its 3.3% growth forecast for 2024 on the expectation the global tech turnaround could give a much-needed boost to the manufacturing sector.

Non-oil domestic export (NODX) for the first two months of the year already averaged an 8.4% year-on-year growth and completely reversed the 1.4% dip in the last three months of 2023.

The services sector is also benefitting from the major concerts the city-state had hosted so far this year, as well as the surge in visitor arrivals.

“A sharper decline in global growth poses downside growth risks. A more resilient services sector and a stronger turnaround in the global tech cycle are upside risks,” the experts said.

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