East Asia-led NODX gains offset slump in Western demand

This signals a shift toward deeper intra-Asian trade.

An uptick in demand in East Asia has kept Singapore's non-oil domestic exports increasing 13% year-on-year (YoY) in June 2025 despite weakness in shipments to developed economies, including the US, Japan, and the EU, according to RHB.

The report said the persistent divergence reinforces a broader structural shift towards deeper intra-Asian trade linkages. This trade realignment, underpinned by regional supply chain integration and the growing weight of East Asian consumption, has provided a buffer against external shocks, such as the rising threat of protectionist measures from the US.

However, RHB noted that much of the recent momentum appears to stem from front-loading ahead of expected policy changes, notably prospective US tariffs targeting semiconductors and pharmaceutical products. These sectors remain central to Singapore’s manufacturing and export base, and any escalation in tariff actions, particularly under a “reciprocal” framework targeting Asian exporters, could pose downside risks in the second half of the year.

Furthermore, external uncertainties persist, including slowing global growth, renewed US-China tensions, and evolving US trade policy, all of which cloud the outlook for sustained export strength.

Despite that, Singapore’s economic foundations, bolstered by regional trade integration and domestic resilience, continue to provide a measure of stability amidst an increasingly uncertain global environment.

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