Singapore industrial output rises 8.3% YoY as swings persist

UOB said Q4 output averaged 18.8% YoY versus 5.3% in Q3, even as houses expect MAS to hold policy.

Singapore’s industrial production growth moderated in December but still came in above market expectations, with analysts broadly maintaining a constructive view on manufacturing momentum in 2026.

Data released for December showed industrial production rising 8.3% YoY, slowing from November’s revised 18.2% increase but beating consensus forecasts of about 7%.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, output fell 13.3% MoM, following a revised 7.8% decline in November, reflecting volatile sequential swings late in the year.

Across research houses, pharmaceuticals were cited as the main driver of year-on-year growth in December, whilst electronics showed signs of improvement after recent weakness.

Analysts noted that strength in these two clusters continues to underpin the manufacturing sector, even as performance across other clusters remains mixed.

Looking ahead, CGS International and RHB said Singapore’s manufacturing sector should remain resilient in 2026, supported by a semiconductor upcycle and sustained pharmaceutical output, although monthly volatility and potential front-loading of production remain risks.

UOB highlighted that industrial production averaged 18.8% YoY in the fourth quarter, up sharply from 5.3% in the third quarter, pointing to a stronger underlying momentum at the end of 2025.

On the macro outlook, UOB maintained its 2026 GDP growth forecast at 2.6%, whilst Nomura expects the official fourth-quarter GDP estimate to be revised higher and keeps a more optimistic 2026 growth forecast of 3.7%, above the government’s 1% to 3% range.

Despite the stronger-than-expected industrial data, CGS, RHB, and UOB all expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore to keep policy unchanged at the next review, citing lingering growth uncertainties and a disinflationary backdrop.