Japan's exports is still treading downhill

It slid further by 2.8%.

According to DBS, exports continued the downtrend that started since 2Q and dropped further by -2.8% (MoM sa) in October. Compared to April, exports have fallen cumulatively by -8.4% (sa).

Here's more from DBS:

Exports to China, which have been declining ever since the beginning of 2011 as a result of China's macro tightening, have continued to deteriorate in the recent months.

The value of exports to China contracted by -11.6% YoY in October and -14.1% YoY in September respectively (-5.3% on the sequential basis). By contrast, China's domestic economic indicators have started to improve since September, while Korea and Taiwan's exports to China have rebounded synchronously.

The underperformance of Japan's exports could be in part attributed to the disruptive impact of China-Japan political tensions that emerged in September. Automobiles exports to China were hit the hardest, falling massively by -75% in the past two months of Sep-Oct.

Imports normalized as expected in October, fully reversing the strong rise in the previous month when importers brought forward oil imports ahead of the government's tax hikes on oil products.

Owing to the weakness in exports, trade deficit remained large at JPY 0.62trn in October, narrowing from JPY 0.96trn in September, but still exceeding the Jan-Aug average of JPY 0.46trn per month. In the full year of 2012, trade deficit is set to reach JPY 6.5trn, a further deterioration from JPY 2.5trn last year.

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