Will the Indian government deliver its ambitious infrastructure projects this year?

Analysts are feeling uncertain.

Plans are in place, but what would the Indian government do to make sure these plans are realised in the timeline they have set?

After one quarter, India has yet to see any blockbuster tender. According to DBS analysts, there are lingering uncertainties about policy reforms and doubts that the government’s ambitious infrastructure projects will be delivered smoothly.

“The other problem that we have highlighted previously concerns the tax targets. A 30% jump in tax revenues this year is high by historical standards. The last time tax revenue growth surpassed 30% was in 2008. But that was when commodity prices were significantly higher than today,” says DBS.

If tax revenues are indeed disappointing, the government is likely to lower its expenditures for the year, with capital expenditure presumably taking the biggest hit.

“Yet, we reckon that that there is some room for higher fiscal deficit this year, given that public debt of circa 25% of GDP is still 10 percentage points lower than similarly-rated economies. Fiscal spending is crucial to spark an acceleration of GDP growth back towards the 6% level amid sluggish private investment growth,” concludes DBS.

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