Economy to grow 1.7% to 2% in 2025: analysts

Exports could drop as much as 4.3%, according to RHB.

Singapore’s economy is expected to grow between 1.7% to 2% in 2025, according to analyst estimates.

UOB Global Economics & Market Research raised its 2025 GDP forecast to 1.7%, from 1.5% previously.

The growth moment in Q2 2025 could continue to experience some bouts of resilience given the pause on reciprocal tariffs and temporary truce between US-China trade tensions, it said.

The truce reportedly opens a window for “continued front-loading by exporters as a hedging strategy” especially as the risk could now be asymmetrically skewed to higher tariffs post the 90-day expiry, as well as looming Section 232 sector-specific tariffs on pharma and semiconductors.

Consumer-facing sectors such as F&B, retail trade, and accommodation could face headwinds from a cooling domestic labour market, based on the Q1 2025 survey by the Ministry of Manpower (MOM), which indicated a lower proportion of firms planning to hire or raise wages in the next 3 months.

In a separate report, RHB maintained their GDP forecast at 2% for 2025, whilst NODX will be flat.

RHB had earlier estimated that the baseline 10% tariffs on Singaporean goods will lead to a 0.9% decline in Singapore's exports.

“Considering the secondary spillover effects, Singapore's exports could drop by 4.3%. As the trade tensions become more uncertain, we expect increasing challenges for Singapore's trade performance and export-oriented sectors,” said Barnabas Gan, group chief economist & head, market research, RHB; and Laalitha Raveenthar, associate research analyst, RHB.