Electronics boom powers Singapore’s September export surprise: analysts

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) rose 6.9% YoY in September.

Signs of a broader regional recovery in electronics exports are gaining traction, supported by strong September data from Singapore.

Both RHB and UOB highlighted the latest figures as reinforcing momentum in the sector. RHB pointed to rising global semiconductor sales and accelerating electronics and electrical (E&E) exports across key Asian exporters—including Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea.

UOB, meanwhile, flagged firming forward indicators, including Singapore’s September purchasing managers’ index (PMI), which posted overall growth at 50.6 and electronics-specific expansion at 50.9.

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) rose 6.9% YoY in September, and 13% on a seasonally adjusted MoM basis—far exceeding Bloomberg’s consensus estimate of a 2.1% contraction.

Electronics exports were the standout performer, surging 30.4% year-on-year. RHB identified integrated circuits (+34.9%), PCs (+58.3%), and disk media (+42.9%) as key growth drivers, whilst UOB noted a parallel lift in consumer electronics (+26.1%), linking it to AI-related demand spillover into mainstream devices and increased memory shipments.

Non-electronics NODX inched up 0.4% YoY. RHB singled out non-monetary gold (+82.7%) and specialised machinery (+14.1%) as primary contributors.

On a geographical basis, UOB reported a 10.1% rebound in shipments to China, whilst U.S.-bound exports remained in contraction for the fifth consecutive month at -9.9% YoY—though less severe than August’s -29.1%.

RHB similarly observed that East Asian markets continued to underpin growth even as U.S. demand stayed weak.

Both banks maintained their NODX growth forecasts within the official 1–3% range. RHB held its projection at +2.0% and recently upgraded its full-year GDP forecast to 3.0%, with its leading index suggesting fourth-quarter growth around 2.0% YoY—pushing full-year expansion just above 3%.

UOB likewise kept its 2025 and 2026 NODX expectations in the 1–3% range, in line with the year-to-date gain of 2.2%.

Still, both warned of potential headwinds. RHB advised caution against “popping the bottle too early,” citing unresolved trade uncertainties.

These include the pending U.S. Supreme Court review on the legality of global tariffs (5 November), potential new U.S.–China trade tensions—including possible Chinese rare earth export controls—and rising risks of sector-specific tariffs, particularly affecting pharmaceutical exports to the U.S.

UOB also pointed to possible front-loading of shipments ahead of potential U.S. semiconductor tariffs and noted the mid-October delay of proposed 100% U.S. tariffs on branded pharmaceutical imports.

With Singapore’s year-to-date NODX growth at 2.2%, both banks suggested that Enterprise Singapore may consider adjusting its full-year guidance if export strength persists through Q4.