Export forecast raised to 25% as September shipments hit record

Stripping out one-off items exports still rose an estimated 36.1% year-on-year.

Singapore’s key exports posted record growth in September, with one analyst upgrading its full-year projection on the back of stronger-than-expected performance.

“We upgrade our full-year NODX [non-oil domestic exports] growth forecast to 25.0% from 15.5%, underpinned by robust YTD growth of 27.6%. The stronger export performance reinforces the upside bias to our full-year GDP growth forecast of 5.0%,” said Barnabas Gan, group chief economist and head of market research at RHB Bank in a new analysis.

Latest data from Enterprise Singapore showed that September NODX accelerated sharply from August, jumping 68.4% year-on-year.

UOB Global Economics and Markets Research cautioned that the headline figure was partly inflated by one-off shipments of ship and boat structures and non-monetary gold. Stripping out those components, NODX would have risen 36.1% from last year, the bank estimated.

Gan said sustained demand for artificial intelligence (AI) continues to support the tech upcycle and electronics exports, and expects resilient AI demand to underpin export momentum through year-end.

However, he noted that the outlook carries downside risks: a potential moderation in AI investment, geopolitical tensions, and US tariff policies could weigh on global demand and disrupt trade flows.

The RHB analysis also said that Singapore’s exports and manufacturing activity will continue to benefit from the global technology upcycle, underpinned by digitalisation and AI adoption.

For UOB Global Economics and Markets Research, electronics NODX is seen to remain resilient through 2026 and into early 2027, supported by robust order books and depleting inventory levels as indicated by the respective subcomponents of the electronics purchasing managers index.

“This should bolster production and exports in the months ahead as firms continue to ramp up capacity,” it said.

“However, we expect AI-related tailwinds to soften in 2H27, consistent with an anticipated moderation in global AI-related capex growth in 2027 relative to 2026, alongside higher global interest rates that could instil a degree of caution among firms when undertaking new investments,” it added.

Singapore’s gross domestic product grew by 5.4% year on year (YoY) in the third quarter (Q3), moderating from 6.2% growth in Q2, the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) reported.

“Looking ahead, we expect firm global demand for semiconductors, integrated circuits (ICs), disk media products and PCs, alongside continued AI investment, to sustain technology-related manufacturing and export growth in Singapore,” Gan said.

“Hence, we maintain our full-year GDP growth projection for Singapore at 5.0% while acknowledging upside bias to our current projection towards 5.4% for 2026,” he added.