Singapore population will shrink by 2025

New study shows that without immigration, the country's citizen base will dwindle and age rapidly to worrying proportions.

Elderly citizens will triple to 900,000 by 2030 while working-age citizens will become fewer and fewer given the current low birth rates and high life expectancy in Singapore, according to one of the population scenarios from the National Population and Talent Division.

But should the country continue to take in 25,000 new citizens per year, then the size of the working-age citizen population would become "relatively stable."

Here's more from the National Population and Talent Division:

The National Population and Talent Division (NPTD) has shared five future population scenarios for Singapore. One of the scenarios projected that Singapore's citizen population will start to shrink by around 2025, if the current low Total Fertility Rate and high life expectancy continue without the intake of new citizens through immigration.

Like most East Asian urbanised societies, Singapore’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has been declining. At the same time, Singaporeans are living longer. Our life expectancy is currently one of the highest in the world.

At current birth rates and without immigration, our citizen population is projected to shrink by around 2025.

2012 is a demographic turning point. Our first cohort of post-war Baby Boomers born between 1947 and 1965 will start turning 65 years old from this year. By 2020, as more citizens exit the working-age band of 20 to 64 years than those entering, the pool of working-age citizens will start to shrink.

Our citizen population will age, and age rapidly. By 2030, the number of elderly citizens will triple to about 900,000, but they will be supported by a smaller base of working-age citizens. The median age of our citizen population will rise from 39 years in 2011 to 47 years in 2030. 

Below-replacement fertility rates and longer life expectancy affect our citizen population size, number of working-age citizens, median age and old-age support ratio. While Singapore presses on with efforts to encourage and support marriage and parenthood, raising TFR alone will not fully mitigate the effects of a declining and ageing citizen population, particularly in the next two decades. Immigration can help mitigate the rate at which our citizen population ages and declines, thereby revitalising our citizen population.