How will MAS tighten monetary policy in April 2023? Analysts explain

The central bank aims to subdue the price pressures.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) may tighten the monetary policy anew in April 2023 to mitigate continued inflation concerns.

For UOB, the policy tightening will be conducted via “re-centering of S$NEER policy mid-point.” 

UOB said their confidence level for tightening was lowered as the US and European banking industry turmoil in recent weeks.

“If systemic impact and contagion risks on the US and global financial sector continue to be reduced by actions from the major central banks and governments, then it will be reasonable to expect the MAS to tighten further,” said UOB.

For Maybank, it was reported that core inflation stayed high in February due to rapid increases in the prices of retail and other goods. Headline inflation eased to a nine-month low due to slowing private transport costs.

Similar to UOB, Maybank sees policy tightening next month, possibly through recentring. It suggests that S$NEER is trading at over 1.5% above the mid-point of the band.

ING said MAS may likely need to retain its hawkish stance until inflation calms down considerably.

“Complicating any potential MAS moves however is the fact that real sector economic data has been soft with retail sales unexpectedly stalling in January while non-oil domestic exports remain in contraction for five months and counting,” the bank said.