Weak export numbers might revive recession fears: analysts

Export growth will be even more lacklustre in Q4.

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports fell 0.5% year-on-year in October, wiping out the measly 0.3% year-on-year growth in September.

Although the contraction is smaller than initial market forecasts, analysts at UOB note that this continue to paint a negative outlook for global trade and poses a risk of renewed technical recession fears.

“Based on September industrial output, we see some downside risk to the 3Q15 growth rate and we could also see fears of ‘technical recession’ being re-visited,” UOB said.

“Exports from key Asian exporters including China (-6.9% y/y), South Korea (-15.8% y/y) and Taiwan (-11.0% y/y) have remained in contraction in the month of October. This suggests that growth will likely remain lackluster in 4Q15. We remain cautious about the Singapore export outlook and therefore maintain our 2015 NODX forecast of a 1% contraction,” the report added.

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