China's consumer confidence rockets to 16-month high

Policy easing pushed the index to 106.1 in October.

A Nomura report cited the National Bureau of Statistics findings which stated that China's consumer confidence jumped to 106.1 in October from 100.8 in September, its highest level since June 2011.

Here's more from Nomura:

We believe the rise was mostly driven by policy easing, which led to a recovery in corporate profits and household income.

This index is volatile, but its trend is well synchronized with the growth of retail sales in China. The sharp uptick in this index suggests that consumption may also surprise on the upside in Q4, supporting our out-of-consensus view that growth will rebound sharply to above 8% in Q4.

The next indicators to watch are the HSBC flash PMI on 22 November, which we expect to rise to 50 from the October reading of 49.5, and the official PMI on 1 December, which we expect to rise to 50.4 from the November reading of 50.2.

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