China's trade figures poised for growth

As exports and imports are estimated to jump 13.5% and 4.5% respectively.

According to DBS, China's trade data are due today. Trade figures charged up in the months prior, with exports and imports growing 23.6% and 5.0% YoY respectively for January and February combined (Jan-Feb13).

DBS noted that in March, exports and imports are projected to grow 13.5% and 4.5% respectively, putting the monthly trade surplus at US$20.3bn and rounding up 1Q13’strade surplusto $64.4bn, $64.2bn higher than the figure in 1Q12.

Here's more:

While growth of exports to the US is positive and increasing (from 0.6% in Jul12 to15% in Jan-Feb13), growth of exports to the EU has just returned to the black.

Export growth to the EU rose from -16.2% in Jul12 to 9.8% in Jan-Feb13. The broader export outlook is set to brighten this year as demand from emerging economies and Asia strengthens(exportsto Africa/ASEAN grew 51.6%/39.4% YoY over Jan-Feb13).

Momentum is expected to continue astrade ties with emerging markets deepen.

CPI readings came in lower than consensus yesterday at 2.1% YoY (vs. 3.2% in February). CPI readings in the first quarter of the year should be taken with a grain of salt due to Chinese New Year distortions.

One should not over-interpret a particular month’sreading and draw conclusions about China’s monetary policy direction. To gauge the direction of monetary policy, it makes more sense to monitor property prices and the government’s stance on clampdowns.

Also, keep an eye on wage growth and monitorsurveys on inflation expectations.

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