India's February industrial production likely to dip 0.4%

Even core industries index slipped.

According to DBS, after a strong January industrial production (IP) print, focus shifts to whether February can sustain the momentum. The data in the leadup is mixed.

Barring the consumer goods production, pockets of weakness in other sub-sectors is likely to keep a lid on strong recovery in the factory output.

Here's more from DBS:

Our estimates suggest that on sequential basis February IP could have slowed to 0.4% (MoM, saar), which will translate into a decline -0.6% (YoY).

On a related note, the core industries index for February slipped -2.4% (YoY), partly weighed by base effects. Worryingly, output in more than half of the sub-sectors contracted on the year, highlighting the persistence of supply-side constraints.

Still, we expect cyclical and gradual improvement in consumption to provide some support to factory output in the months ahead, and in turn to the economy’s growth outlook.

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