India's total expenditure growth decelerated to 3.1% in February

Government still on tightening measures.

According to Morgan Stanley, total expenditure growth decelerated to 3.1%YoY in Feb from growth of 13.8% in Jan. On a fiscal year to date (FYTD) basis, expenditure growth decelerated to 10.2%YoY in Apr-Feb from 10.9% in Apr-Jan 2013.

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However, expenditure growth remains slightly above revised estimate (RE) target of 9.7%YoY for F2013. Revenue expenditure growth decelerated to 3.6%YoY in Feb compared to growth of 13.4%YoY in Jan.

On a FYTD basis revenue expenditure decelerated to 10.3%YoY in Apr-Feb vs. 11% in Apr-Jan compared to RE of 10.2%YoY.

On a FYTD basis capital expenditure growth was 9.1%YoY compared to RE of 5.8%YoY.

Total expenditure growth has been on a decelerating trend since Sep-12. While the recent deceleration in expenditure growth has been partly due to delays in subsidy payments (fertilizer and oil subsidy) the government has also been able to cut expenditure excluding subsidy and interest payments.

Indeed total expenditure less subsidy and interest payments has decelerated to 3.8%YoY between Sep-Feb 2013 compared to growth of 11.4% between Apr- Aug 2012. Moreover, implied expenditure growth for Mar-13 to achieve full year revised estimates is at about 10%, which should be doable in our view.

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