India's trade deficit narrowed to USD 12.2b in July

External demand to improve, says analyst.

According to BBVA Research, India’s July trade deficit narrowed to USD 12.2 bn (USD 17.5 bn in July 2012) as exports pick up 11.6%y/y to USD 25.8 bn, snapping two successive months of decline, while imports fell by 6.2% y/y to USD 38.1 bn.

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Looking ahead, an improving external demand outlook coupled with slowing imports of oil and gold bode well for India’s current account deficit although the recent sharp rupee depreciation presents a key upside risk.

We expect India's Current account deficit to improve to 4.3% of GDP in 2013 from 5.0% in 2012. Nevertheless, the rupee remains near a record low, at 61.2 per USD.

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