Exports growth to slow in the second half of 2022: analysts

China's slowdown is amongst the factors dampening the global trade outlook.

Following a double-digit increase in H122 of 10.2%, analysts expect the non-oil domestic exports (NODX) to ease to low-single-digit growth in H222.

In a report, Maybank said it expects a weaker trade performance during the second half because of the China slowdown, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the global monetary tightening.

"Prices of some integrated circuits are falling due to declining market demand, which could further slow the electronics momentum in the second half," Maybank said.

In June, electronic products posted a more moderate increase, rising only by 4.1% from 12.9% in May.

Despite an expected slowdown in 2H, UOB said the full-year projection of a 3%-5% full-year NODX growth still "looks achievable."

"While the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, elevated commodities prices, tightening monetary policy stance globally and concerns over a potential US recession are likely to weigh on economic activities ahead, Singapore’s robust NODX performance so far in 1H 2022 is likely to carry over into the second half of the year as regional economies recover and with China having emerged from its COVID-19 lockdowns," UOB commented.

UOB expects the full-year NODX growth to be 5%, whilst Maybank's forecast was 5%-6%.

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non-oil domestic exports (NODX)

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