MAS forecasters lift 2026 growth to 3.6%

MAS March survey shows GDP forecast jumps to 3.6% after 6.9% Q4 2025 growth.

Singapore’s economy is projected to grow 3.6% in 2026, according to the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS) March 2026 Survey of Professional Forecasters.

The median forecast marks an increase from 2.3% in the December 2025 survey, reflecting higher expectations for manufacturing and wholesale and retail trade.

The economy expanded 6.9% year-on-year (YoY) in the fourth quarter of 2025, above the forecast in the previous survey, with GDP for the first quarter of 2026 projected at 5.8% YoY, whilst growth for 2027 is expected at 2.5%.

Inflation is projected to remain modest, with the median forecast for CPI-All Items at 1.5% and MAS Core Inflation at 1.5% for 2026.

The overall unemployment rate is expected to remain at 2.1% by the end of the year.

For 2027, both CPI-All Items and MAS Core Inflation are projected at 1.7%.

Monetary policy expectations indicate that 47% of respondents anticipate an increase in the slope of the S$NEER policy band in April 2026, whilst no changes are expected to the band’s width or central level.

The exchange rate is projected at 1.25 Singapore dollars per US dollar, the average SORA is expected at 1.3% per annum, and bank loans are forecast to grow 4.8% by year-end.

The survey gathered responses from 22 economists and analysts who closely monitor the Singapore economy.

Geopolitical risks, including escalation in trade tensions and wars, were the most cited downside risks to the country's economic performance.

"Respondents also flagged the burst of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) bubble, with spillovers to financial markets, and external economic slowdown, as potential risks," the report stated.

"More respondents cited a sustained AI-led tech cycle upturn as an upside risk to Singapore’s economic outlook, identified by 94% of respondents. Respondents also pointed to resilient global growth and easing of trade tensions as key upside risks," it added.