Gov’t edges up expected growth for exports, merchandise trade

This is whilst rising oil prices and high global semiconductor demand continue.

Enterprise Singapore increased its projection for non-oil domestic exports (NODX) and total merchandise trade in 2022, following the oil price hike and robust global semiconductor demand.

In its outlook, Enterprise Singapore said total merchandise trade will be up to 15% to 16% whilst NODX will grow to 5% to 6%.

There may be a better-than-expected performance in the second quarter of 2022 but Enterprise Singapore warned of headwinds such as elevated prices on the back of uncertainty in global energy supply during the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

It cited that 2022’s oil price forecast will be at $144 (US$105) per barrel which is almost 50% above 2021’s $97 (US$71) per barrel.

“Prices are expected to stay elevated for the rest of 2022 on a year-on-year basis as the global energy supply remains uncertain amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict,” it said.

As this happened, global semiconductor revenue is projected to be 7.4% higher year-on-year in 2022, Enterprise Singapore said.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is also seeing that global economic activity will grow 3.2% in 2022, down from 3.6%.

Overall, Enterprise Singapore noted that the IMF noted global risks on the downside, with several challenges that hit the global economy, which is already weakened by the pandemic.