OCBC to suffer the largest fall compared to DBS and UOB

That is in terms of the bank's non-interest income as it is expected to slump 35% to S$548m.

Here's more from CIMB:

OCBC should have the largest sequential decline in earnings, as its trading performance and insurance operations had a very strong 1Q12 that is difficult to repeat. We expect net interest income to grow by 2.8% qoq to S$978m. OCBC’s non-interest income should suffer the largest fall of the three banks; we expect a sequential decline of 35% to S$548m. (following the sale of F&N and APB, non-core gains could spurt up again in 3Q.)

We expect the larger decline in non-interest income to come primarily from weaker trading and insurance performance. In 1Q12, OCBC saw the smallest sequential growth in fee income, a mere 6.6% compared to DBS’ 17% and UOB’s 11% growth.

We think that the volatile 2Q12 will hold back demand for wealth management products at Bank of Singapore. Of interest would be whether trade-related activities revive. Last quarter, it showed a larger-than-peer decline in general commerce loans as large Chinese corporate clients turned to onshore banks for trade financing facilities.

Lastly, we think OCBC faces the most headwinds from rising credit costs as general provisioning was generally lower than peers in the last three years.

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