Property market resilience hinges on tariff-driven job and cost pressures

Opportunities remain in CCR private homes, the private resale market, and the landed segment, analysts said.

Singapore’s 'resilient' property market is about to face its next big test on an expected economic slowdown brought about by the tariff war.

Policy uncertainty around US President Donald Trump’s on-off global tariffs is expected to weigh on global growth. In turn, Singapore— a trade-dependent economy— will likely feel the strain, said DBS Group Research’s equity team in a 23 April 2025 report.

One key risk is the effect on employment, a major driver of property demand and price, warned DBS Group Research analysts Derek Tan and Tabitha Foo.

“We may see a pullback in demand if buyer sentiment turns cautious,” Tan and Foo said, adding that it has revised their property price index (PPI) growth projection to 0-1% in 2025 (from 1-2%).

They said to watch out for unemployment and affordability trends.

“With current government measures in place to curb speculation and limit foreign participation, the private property market is largely supported by upgraders and Singaporean/permanent resident households,” the analysts said.

Since 2020, property prices have outpaced income growth, they said. The average property price-to-median income ratio has risen to 14.6x, higher than the 15-year average of 13.6x.

Analysts observed that for new launches, property buyers are increasingly deploying more cash into purchases or seeking help from family; and a higher proportion of resale transactions, which offer better value compared to new launches.

“In this phase of the property cycle, opportunities remain in private homes in Core Central Region (CCR), private resale market, and landed property segment, where new supply is limited,” it added.

Meanwhile, listed developers under DBS Research’s coverage have pre-sold over 80% of their inventories, implying they are well positioned to weather a slowdown in the property market.

These developers include Capitaland Investment Ltd, City Developments, the UOL Group, Frasers Property Ltd, Guocoland, APAC Reality Ltd., and PropNex Ltd.

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