Chart of the Day: Developers' sales disappointingly crashed 30% to 14,678 units

Will it tumble further downhill?

According to Barclays, the latest URA data brings 11M13 developer sales to 14,678 units, 30% below the 20,880 units seen in 11M12, on track to hit our forecast of 15,500 units this year.

Analysts expect December 2013 volumes to decline sequentially and for 2014 volumes to remain subdued as the Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) rules in place since June 2013 continue to bite and also as buyers get cautious on a looming oversupply.

Here's more from Barclays:

We maintain our negative stance on the Singapore residential sector as we expect prices to fall 20% by 2015 as interest rates rise, coinciding with peak supply, and the vacancy rate could reach an unprecedented 10% by 2016.

We believe the prospect of higher interest rates remains the most obvious threat to the real estate sector, particularly real estate securities and REITs.

SREITs and real estate developers in Singapore have declined 12% YTD in absolute terms and have underperformed the general Singapore STI by 8%. SREITS have declined 22% and developers -17% from their respective 52-week peaks.

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