China GDP growth disappoints?

The 8.1% year-on-year growth for the first quarter was lower than forecast.

BBVA Research said:

Q1 GDP of China registered lower than expected 8.1% y/y growth (BBVA: 8.7%; consensus: 8.3%), down from 8.9% y/y from the previous quarter, mainly on sluggish investment.

Despite the sharper slowdown, we believe that the growth momentum has bottomed and should rebound through the rest of the year on supportive policies, including easing monetary policy and consumption subsidies. This is consistent with the better than expected PMI outturn for March.

Moreover, aggregate credit also shows larger-than-expected new loans. The weaker-than-expected GDP strengthens the case for RRR cuts (100-150bps cuts in the coming months), and up to two interest rate cuts if external environment deteriorates and inflation remains contained.

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