China's GDP pegged to hit 7.6%

Domestic demand to boost growth.

According to DBS, China’s 3Q GDP due this Friday is projected to accelerate to 7.6% YoY, higher than 2Q’s 7.5% on the back of stronger domestic demand.

Here's more from DBS:

Most notably, fixed asset investment (FAI) which accounts for almost 50% of GDP, has accelerated to 20.4% YTD (Sep forecast) from 20.1% in June.

Retail sales are marginally up to 12.9% YTD (Sep forecast) from 12.8% in June. These are happening amid an absence of bold supportive monetary and fiscal policies - all the more reason for policy to remain neutral for the rest of the year.

Data hints gradual recovery of domestic demand. Sep’s electricity consumption rose 10.4% YoY (11.0% in Sep vs. 9.6% in Aug on a 3mma basis), and industrial production (IP) numbers will likely mirror such improvement. Sep IP is expected to rise to 10.5% from 10.4% in Aug.

The manufacturing sector is also improving as the PMI has reached a 17-month high and industrial profit growth is accelerating. Infrastructure FAI and real estate FAI were up 24.7% and 21.3% in Aug YTD respectively, and are expected to further accelerate in Sep.

As far as private consumption is concerned, retail sales are likely to accelerate as well. Sep’s retail sales are expected to grow 13.8%, up from 13.4% in Aug, extending the recovery that began since March (12.6%).

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