Chart of the Day: Here's proof of a very disappointing GDP pullback

It contracted 2.7% in 4Q13.

According to CIMB, Singapore’s economic recovery last year was not entirely straight-line. After four consecutive quarters of expansion, 4Q13 GDP contracted by a bigger-than-expected 2.7% qoq SAAR.

Yoy, the economy expanded by a lower-than-expected 4.4%. 2013 growth came in at 3.7% (1.3% in 2012). On the back of improving global demand, we maintain our 2014 growth forecast of about 5%, vs. the government’s 2-4%.

Here's more from CIMB:

Advance estimates from the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) show 4Q13 GDP contracting 2.7%, qoq annualised and seasonally adjusted (SAAR). This was the first sequential pullback since 3Q12’s -4.6%.

The preliminary showing is weaker than expected (consensus and CIMB forecasts: -1.3% and -0.2%), due in part to higher revised 3Q13 growth.

The first estimate for 3Q13 GDP in Oct 13 was -1.0% qoq SAAR (+5.1% yoy). This was revised to +1.3% qoq SAAR (+5.8% yoy) in Nov 13 and further to +2.2% qoq SAAR or +5.9% yoy today.

We believe there could be more revisions as further sets of data are rolled out, leading to firmer growth estimates for 4Q13 and 2013 GDP.

Yoy, 4Q13 GDP expanded 4.4%, lower than consensus and our forecasts of +4.8% and +5% respectively. This brought 2013 GDP growth to 3.7% (1.3% in 2012), a tad lower than our 3.8% forecast. Much firmer service-sector growth (+5.1% in 2013 vs. 2012’s +1.2%) compensated for still-soft goods-sector growth (+1.5% in 2013 vs. 2012’s +1.2%).

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