Q1 flash GDP could have shrunk 0.1%

Contraction very possible, says OCBC.

In its latest weekly macro views report, OCBC Bank pegged the upcoming Q1 flash GDP to come in at -0.1% yoy, which will be a disappointing dip from the +1.5% expansion in the previous quarter.

"If this materializes, it would be the weakest quarterly performance for the Singapore since Q3 2012 which came in at 0% yoy (-4.6% qoq saar)," it said.

OCBC further observed that industrial output shrank by 8.3% yoy for Jan-Feb, with weakness in both electronics (-12.0% yoy) and non-electronics (-6.5% yoy) and that NODX also fell 15.1% yoy, which it said will risk IESingapore’s 2013 NODX growth forecast of 2-4%.

On the brighter side, OCBC considers the possibility that the worst of the manufacturing weakness is behind, with manufacturing PMI recovering to expansion territory in March, and electronics PMI marking its second month in expansion territory. The new orders gauge is also improving gradually, it noted.

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