8 in 10 Singaporeans fear faster inflation in 2026 as trade wars loom

The impact of trade policies is seen to push inflation up.

Over 80% of Singaporeans expect inflation to slightly increase in the next 12 months due to uncertainty caused by global trade policies.

The latest Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) Survey, conducted between 22 and 28 December 2025, showed that 83.4% see the one-year-ahead inflation to increase. This percentage increased from 47.5% in September 2025, showing “there is a clear understanding of the potential for a medium-term increase in One-year-Ahead inflation expectations, particularly regarding the impact of global trade policies on price levels.”

Based on the poll, Singaporeans project a one-year-ahead headline inflation of 3.5% from 3.3% in September 2025, the lowest level since December 2021. After addressing potential behavioural biases, headline inflation expectations went down to 3% in December 2025 from 3.1% in September 2025.

Data from the Monetary Authority of Singapore Survey of Professional Forecasters (MAS SPF) released in December 2025 showed that the median forecast of the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-All Items inflation for 2025 (quarterly) was 0.9% (1.5% for 2026), whilst MAS Core Inflation median forecast was 0.7% (1.3% for 2026).

DBS has said that the city-state’s inflation is expected to increase this year after bottoming out in the third quarter of 2025. Core inflation is seen to settle at 1.0% and headline inflation at 1.2%, both within MAS’ 0.5% to 1.5% projection range.

CGS International sees “headline inflation to rise by 1.5% year-on-year, driven by a wave of domestic cost adjustments.” UOB’s Global Economics and Markets Research also expects core inflation to reach 1.5%, whilst headline inflation will be 1.5%.

According to the SInDEx poll, 28.3% of respondents expecting inflation to increase over the next 12 months attributed this to higher trade policy uncertainty, like tariffs. This was followed by geopolitical uncertainties and the conflicts involving Hamas and Israel, Ukraine and Russia, and Iran and Israel (18.5%); higher interest rates (15.8%); supply chain disruptions (15.3%); and fiscal responsibility measures like higher value-added taxes (12.2%).

Those expecting inflation to decline cited the uncertain impact of the resolution of supply chain disruptions (33.3%), followed by central banks keeping interest rates high (20%). This is followed by more competition leading to lower prices (16.7%).

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