How Singapore’s safe-haven status offsets Middle East war

Maybank expects H1 gains for Banks, REITs, and Tech if conflict is short.

The Iran crisis is expected to have little effect on company profits in the first half (H1) of 2026 as Singapore’s market remains strong, supported by its reputation as a "safe haven" for investors and a reliable place to do business during uncertain times.

“In a ‘Short War’ concluding in under a month, we see limited H1 2026 earnings impact. In fact, Banks, NBFIs [Non-Bank Financial Institutions], REITs and Tech Manufacturing may have upside,” Maybank IBG Research said in a report.

Tensions between the US and Iran escalated sharply in late February and early March following a series of direct military strikes. This conflict quickly gained a global footprint after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a massive surge in international oil prices and forcing several Asian nations to implement emergency fuel rationing.

Minister for Manpower Tan See Leng has assured that Singapore’s energy supply remains secure despite rising global oil and gas prices linked to the Middle East war.

“In the past 15-years, Singapore valuations have been resilient to oil shocks. Amidst oil price hikes ranging from 26% to 52% from start-to-peak, the STI increased an average of 4.8%,” the Maybank report read.

“We believe Singapore’s structural ‘certainty premium’ should continue to play out under the themes of domestic resilience, safe-haven flows, policy reforms, capital returns and growing AI deployment. We see any market pullback as fresh entry opportunity,” it added.

Meanwhile, if the war were to last for more than a month, Maybank warned of downgrade risks this fiscal year.

For instance, financials may face pressure from weaker loan growth, higher credit costs and softer fee income, with UOB, and SGX being the most exposed, “although EQDP could provide partial downside offset via directed liquidity.”

“Consumer is defensive but uneven: Sheng Siong Group remains resilient, whilst Thai Beverage may be negatively impacted due to its discretionary consumption exposure,” it added.

In the transport sector, Singapore Airlines and Singapore Airport Terminal Services should see better rerouting and cargo yields, whilst ComfortDelGro is cushioned by fuel indexation.

Experts have lowered their economic growth forecast for Singapore this year, citing risks from the conflict and disruptions in the Hormuz Strait.

Maybank has lowered its 2026 gross domestic product growth forecast to 3.4% from 3.6%, with the petrochemical sector facing the most pronounced impact. Meanwhile, RHB maintained its 3.0% full-year NODX growth forecast, whilst warning that the ‘ongoing geopolitical noise’ could weigh on growth.